LEAD · THE WEEK THAT WAS

Brent rose 6% as the Houthis struck Saudi Arabia, Europe’s ministers came to the Bosphorus, Turkey cut rates and Greece set an age line.

BY MEHMET ISTANBULLU · ABOUT 7 MINUTES

It was a week in which two prices that sit under every budget, a barrel of oil and a decade of French debt, rose together, and the most watched diplomatic meeting took place on the Bosphorus. Here are five things that changed, and the line in each that should still matter next month.

Istanbul gets a new table. On Friday, Turkey’s Hakan Fidan hosted his R-4 partners from Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Pakistan, then the foreign ministers of Britain, France, Germany and Italy, the first meeting of its kind. ^[1][2] “Military intervention is not a solution,” Fidan said. ^[1] The R-4 statement backed the Islamabad memorandum, condemned Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and called for the “swift and full resumption” of safe passage through Hormuz. ^[3] What changed: the ministers agreed to keep consulting, so the region and Europe now have a standing channel on the war of their own. ^[3]

Oil and money both got dearer. Brent crude for December rose 6.24% over the week to settle at $116.72 a barrel on Friday, its highest close since April 29 and up almost 92% this year. ^[4] On Wednesday, France’s 10-year bond yield touched 5% for the first time since 2002; on Friday Moody’s held the country at Aa3 with a negative outlook. ^[5][6] What changed: energy and borrowing, the two costs every plan assumes, are now moving up at the same time.

Turkey’s central bank changes direction. On Thursday the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye cut its one-week repo rate by 100 basis points to 36%, its first cut since January after five holds. The overnight lending rate fell to 39%. ^[7][8] The bank said further steps would be “decided prudently on a meeting-by-meeting basis.” ^[7] What changed: the direction of the policy rate, not yet its pace; the bank promises no schedule.

France buys its winter in the Gulf. Emmanuel Macron toured Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar from Oct. 19 to 21, then stopped in Riyadh. Intelligence Online first reported on Oct. 13 that the trip would center on air defense. ^[9] It did: the UAE and France exchanged a strategic defense framework, and French personnel had spent eight days helping protect Saudi Arabia’s pipeline to Yanbu. ^[11][10] Less noticed were the fuel deals: 295,000 tonnes of diesel a month from the UAE, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, about 10% of French use, and Qatari gas equal to two terawatt-hours a month this winter. ^[10][12] What changed: France’s winter fuel now comes with security commitments attached.

Children and data get a price. Greece’s parliament passed a law on Friday barring under-15s from social media from Jan. 1, 2027. Platforms must verify ages or face fines of up to 6% of global turnover; the governing New Democracy party passed it on its own votes. ^[13][14] Two days earlier, a New Mexico judge ordered Meta to pay $25 billion in a state case over consumers’ data, with the money going to schools; an appeal is expected. ^[15] What changed: the cost of getting children and data wrong is now written in law and in court awards, not left to the platforms’ terms of service.

THE WEEK AHEAD

Sunday, Oct. 25: Serbia elects its parliament; polls close at 8 p.m. local time, 11 p.m. GST (UTC+4) ^[16]. The first parliamentary vote since the Novi Sad protests began; the winner runs Serbia’s EU talks and its large Chinese-built projects. ^[17]

Sunday, Oct. 25: Brazil’s presidential runoff, Lula against Flávio Bolsonaro; polls close at 5 p.m. Brasília time, midnight GST (UTC+4) ^[18][19]. The result sets the course of Latin America’s largest economy on spending, trade and China ties for four years.

Tuesday, Oct. 27: Israel’s election to the 26th Knesset ^[20]. The first national vote since Oct. 7, 2023; the next coalition will set Israel’s course on Iran, Gaza and Lebanon.

Tuesday, Oct. 27: Turkey’s parliamentary Plan and Budget Committee debates the 2027 budget as a whole, from 10 a.m. Turkey time, 11 a.m. GST (UTC+4); ministry budgets follow from Oct. 28 ^[21]. Committee talks run to Nov. 27; watch for tax and spending changes before the budget reaches the full parliament in December.

Wednesday, Oct. 28: U.K. Budget, House of Commons, about 12:30 p.m. GMT, 4:30 p.m. GST (UTC+4), with new forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility ^[22]. John Healey’s first Budget; he has pledged not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, so watch property and savings. ^[23]

Wednesday, Oct. 28: U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision, 2 p.m. Eastern time, 10 p.m. GST (UTC+4) ^[24]. A hold is expected; a surprise either way moves the dollar and, through their currency pegs, money costs in most Gulf states.

Thursday, Oct. 29: European Central Bank rate decision, Frankfurt, 2:15 p.m. CET, 5:15 p.m. GST (UTC+4) ^[25]. With French yields near 5%, the bank’s words on bond markets matter as much as the rate itself.

Friday, Oct. 30: Bank of Japan ends its two-day meeting and publishes its outlook ^[26]. A hold at 1.25% is expected; a hike would strengthen the yen and squeeze trades funded in it. ^[27]

Friday, Oct. 30: Eurostat’s first estimate of third-quarter growth for the euro area ^[28]. The first hard number on what $116 oil and 5% French yields have done to Europe’s economy.

Friday, Oct. 30: Changes to U.S. 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods take effect ^[29]. Plywood, some paper and machinery come off the list; separately, Washington has lifted its ban on Bombardier business jets. ^[30]

OFF THE RADAR

On Sunday Serbia elects a parliament, and the campaign began at a railway station. On Nov. 1, 2024, the concrete canopy of the newly renovated station in Novi Sad fell, killing 16 people. Student-led protests followed and became a party list, the Student List, now the main challenger to President Aleksandar Vučić’s Serbian Progressive Party. Opposition parties and watchdogs accuse the government of corruption; Vučić and his allies deny it. ^[17]

The paper trail gets less attention than the crowds. In an Oct. 8 article, two University of Belgrade professors, one a member of the Inquiry Commission looking into the collapse, published January 2022 work lists. They show the station’s contractors proposing filler and paint for the canopy ceiling where the design called for structural repair of the slab, and only two of six planned radio test runs done on one key day. The authors wrote that no court case had begun 23 months after the collapse. ^[31] The Chinese consortium that led the rebuild, CRIC-CCCC, has said its work followed the building permit and that the canopy was part of the original building, outside its scope. ^[32]

Polls disagree. Ipsos, in a poll commissioned by Vučić’s list, gives it 47.4% to the students’ 40%; NSPM puts the students ahead, 44.5% to 42.7%. ^[33][34]

The move: If you own or lease a renovated building, ask for the as-built record, not the design, and check that what was signed off matches what was planned.

OFF THE RADAR · FAMILY

On Oct. 15, part of the first floor of the Al-Khair Education System school in Peshawar’s Dir Colony fell onto the classroom below, killing 33 children and a teacher and injuring 17. ^[35]

A municipal inquiry reported this week that the building went up in 2011 as a house, and that its approved plan could not be found in the official record. The first-floor roof, wooden planks covered with bricks, was temporary and could not carry the weight of pupils and furniture. From the street it did not look dangerous, so the planning inspector never flagged it. ^[36][35] Governor Faisal Karim Kundi ordered safety checks of every private and government school in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and asked for a law within 15 days that would let unsafe schools be closed. ^[35]

Wherever private schools open faster than inspectors can visit, children study in converted buildings, and the question of what a building was built for is rarely asked at enrollment.

The move: Before the next term, ask your child’s school in writing what its building was built for, when it was last inspected and who signed the safety certificate.

SOURCES (ACCESSED OCT. 24, 2026)

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The Other Post: The Daily Briefing for the Conscientious Leader, through an Istanbul lens is independent analysis for decision-makers. Nothing here is investment, legal or medical advice. Issue No. 10 · © 2026 Mehmet Istanbullu