LEAD · GAME CHANGERS

Canada’s prime minister meets Erdoğan in Ankara on Thursday, with nuclear power, gas and drones on the agenda and a joint declaration expected.

BY MEHMET ISTANBULLU · ABOUT 6 MINUTES

Mark Carney leaves Ottawa for Ankara at 6:30 p.m. local time on Wednesday, Oct. 21, on the first bilateral visit to Turkey by a Canadian prime minister. ^[1][2] He meets President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara on Thursday and Turkish business leaders in Istanbul on Friday. ^[3] Reuters first reported the trip on Oct. 2, citing four sources. ^[4]

On Tuesday, Reuters reported, citing a person briefed on the matter, that the two NATO allies expect to sign a joint declaration in four areas: defense, energy, the economy, including the free trade talks, and social and diplomatic ties. Each would get a committee to draft an action plan. ^[3] Canadian officials declined to confirm what would be signed. One said the Istanbul meetings are meant “to foster new opportunities for commercial collaboration,” and that Ottawa is most interested in aerospace, defense, energy, mining, high technology and agriculture. ^[3]

WHY IT MATTERS

The trade base is modest and lopsided. Two-way merchandise trade came to 4.3 billion Canadian dollars ($3.1 billion) in 2025. Canada sold Turkey 1.1 billion Canadian dollars ($781 million), led by agri-food, aircraft and machinery, and bought 3.2 billion Canadian dollars ($2.3 billion), mostly consumer goods and metal products. ^[5][6] Ottawa says trade has grown almost 50% in five years. ^[1] Investment has gone the other way: the stock of Canadian direct investment in Turkey stood at 3.3 billion Canadian dollars ($2.3 billion) in 2025, down 19.7% from 2024. ^[5][6] The two leaders launched talks on a free trade agreement at the NATO summit in Ankara in July, and Canada’s public consultations closed in September. ^[1]

The visit is part of Carney’s effort to reduce Canada’s trade dependence on the United States amid a trade war with Washington, Reuters reported. ^[3] He set out the logic at the World Economic Forum in January: “If we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu.” ^[7]

THE REACTOR ON THE TABLE

Energy, and nuclear power first of all, will top the agenda, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on Sunday. ^[3] Turkey’s 2050 target is 20,000 megawatts of nuclear capacity, enough to meet 10% to 15% of its needs, including at least 5,000 megawatts of small modular reactors. ^[8] Its first plant, the 4,800-megawatt Akkuyu station in Mersin province, is being built by Russia’s Rosatom under a build-own-operate model. Sinop, on the Black Sea, and a site in Thrace are being prepared for the next two plants, and Ankara has held talks with South Korea, the United States and China about them. ^[8][9]

Canada wants a place in that queue. On March 3, Candu Energy, a unit of the Montreal engineering group AtkinsRéalis, signed a memorandum with TÜNAŞ, Turkey’s state nuclear company, to assess CANDU reactors for Turkish sites, with Bayraktar and Canada’s energy minister, Tim Hodgson, in attendance. The study covers licensing, financing, ownership, project delivery, localization and the workforce. ^[10][9] A working group is now expected to study the feasibility of a CANDU bid for the planned Black Sea plant, Reuters reported. Turkey has also talked with Korea Electric Power Corp. and China’s State Power Investment Corp. about its second and third plants. ^[3]

The design has a long record. Thirty-one CANDU reactors are in operation, 17 of them in Canada and others in South Korea, Romania and China. They are pressurized heavy water reactors built to run for 30 years, with 30 more after refurbishment. AtkinsRéalis is taking its 1,000-megawatt Monark design through a vendor design review with Canada’s nuclear regulator. ^[9] Bayraktar put Ankara’s interest plainly in March: “We attach great importance to the potential of working together between the two countries to diversify our energy basket and increase the capacity of nuclear energy.” ^[9]

GAS, MINERALS AND DRONES

Ankara also expects talks on possible purchases of Canadian liquefied natural gas and on critical minerals, according to the person briefed. ^[3] Canada’s largest LNG export plant, LNG Canada at Kitimat in British Columbia, took a final investment decision on Sept. 28 on a second phase that doubles its capacity to 28 million tons a year. Its partners are Shell, PETRONAS, PetroChina, Mitsubishi and KOGAS, each of which takes and sells its own share of the output, and Shell says the plant is well placed to supply customers in Asia. ^[11] In this editor’s judgment, the open question is which Canadian cargoes could reach the Mediterranean at a competitive price.

The defense talks are expected to center on drones and naval cooperation. ^[3] The ground was cleared on Jan. 29, 2024, when Canada dropped its presumptive denial of military export permits for Turkey. Applications are now reviewed case by case, and when a Turkish government body is the end user, Ankara must state whether the items will go on to any non-NATO country other than Ukraine. ^[12] The change covered optical technology used in the drones Turkey exports to dozens of countries, Reuters reported. Turkish defense analysts cautioned that major agreements were unlikely to materialize in the short term. ^[3]

PROFILE: ATKINSRÉALIS

AtkinsRéalis, listed in Toronto, traces its roots to 1911 and calls itself the steward of CANDU technology, which operates on four continents. Its reactors can also co-produce medical radioisotopes used to detect and treat cancer. ^[10] “The signing of this MOU is a testament to the tremendous progress made with TUNAS over the past year,” Joe St. Julian, the company’s president for nuclear, said in March. ^[10]

Carney travels with Foreign Minister Anita Anand and Hodgson, whose profile appears on The Other Page. In Istanbul he is to meet defense executives and companies with energy businesses, including Çalık Holding and Sabancı Holding, according to two people familiar with the plans. ^[3] In this editor’s judgment, the reactor is the prize that would outlast this visit: a nuclear plant binds two countries for 60 years.

THE BEST MOVES

WHAT TO WATCH

The bottom line: In this editor’s judgment, the trade figures are small and the reactor is large. If a working group turns a memorandum into a bid, this visit will be remembered for it.

IN BRIEF

DEFENSE

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday, Oct. 18, made public a national security doctrine. It gives “priority to prevention and attack over containment and defense,” including preemptive strikes, and sets 10 principles, from preventing enemy nuclear weapons “by proactive offensive action” to buffer zones, local arms production and “significantly increasing the defense budget,” in an unofficial English translation by IMRA. Its list of threats opens with what it calls the Shiite axis and the Muslim Brotherhood axis. ^[14] Six days earlier, Tamir Hayman, executive director of the Institute for National Security Studies and head of military intelligence from 2018 to 2021, argued that an unwritten concept had guided policy since Oct. 7, 2023. His reading, which he called “subjective, theoretical and deliberately exaggerated,” lists preventive war, forward defense zones and arms independence, and asks whether the shift reflects a change in national identity. ^[15] Rivals dismissed the document; Gadi Eisenkot called it “two hollow pages, full of slogans.” Israelis vote on Oct. 27. ^[16]

The move: Read Hayman’s essay beside the doctrine. If you sell defense technology into Israel, watch whether the next government keeps principle 7, on reducing dependence on foreign suppliers. ^[15][14]

GEOPOLITICS

Libya’s House of Representatives, the eastern parliament aligned with military commander Khalifa Haftar, voted unanimously on Tuesday to adopt the 2019 memorandum that delimits maritime zones between Turkey and Libya. It also repealed two 2020 resolutions that had rejected agreements with Turkey and cut ties with Ankara, the AP reported. ^[17] Turkey’s Foreign Ministry welcomed the decision, saying the memorandum safeguards both countries’ rights and interests “on the basis of international law and the principles of equity” (translated by The Other Post). ^[18] Greece rejected it. The memorandum “remains illegal, null and void,” its ministry said, arguing that Turkey and Libya have no opposite or adjacent coasts and that the deal disregards the Greek islands. ^[19] Cyprus also condemned the vote, and Egypt opposes the accord. Saddam Haftar called Turkey “a significant regional power,” and the government in Tripoli called the vote “a positive development.” ^[17]

The move: If you hold or seek offshore rights in the eastern Mediterranean, check your blocks against the 2019 lines, and watch what “appropriate action” Athens takes. ^[19]

WEALTH

Parliament’s Planning and Budget Committee takes up the 2027 central government budget on Wednesday, Oct. 21, with a presentation by Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz. The bill projects spending of 27.276 trillion lira ($551 billion) and revenue of 23.408 trillion lira ($473 billion), a deficit of 3.5% of GDP, or 2.8% without earthquake spending. ^[20][6] The housing lines move most. Support for social housing finance rises 150% to 250 billion lira ($5.1 billion), and the urban transformation allocation rises 176% to 276 billion lira ($5.6 billion). Yılmaz said 5.4 trillion lira, about $104 billion, went to the earthquake zone from 2023 to 2026, with 455,357 homes and workplaces handed over. The program targets 4.2% growth and 21% inflation by the end of 2027. The committee debates the whole budget on Oct. 27 and ministry budgets from Oct. 28 to Nov. 27; the bill reaches the floor in December. ^[20]

The move: If you build or finance housing in Turkey, follow the ministry sessions from Oct. 28 for how the 276 billion lira will be spent, and watch Thursday’s rate decision. ^[20][13]

PROFILE

Tim Hodgson, a former head of Goldman Sachs Canada, flies to Turkey with Carney seven months after attending a nuclear signing with Ankara.

Tim Hodgson in Montreal, June 29, 2026. Photo: © European Union, 2026 (Peter McCabe, European Commission Audiovisual Service), CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons; cropped and toned (license)

Tim Hodgson has been Canada’s minister of energy and natural resources since May 13, 2025, two weeks after he won his first election, in the Toronto-area riding of Markham–Thornhill. ^[21] Born in Winnipeg to a Royal Canadian Air Force family, he joined the Canadian Armed Forces at 17 and served as a reserve officer from 1979 to 1985. He trained as a chartered accountant at PwC and took an MBA from the Ivey Business School in 1988. ^[21]

He spent 1990 to 2010 at Goldman Sachs in New York, London, Silicon Valley and Toronto, running Goldman Sachs Canada from 2005. He then joined the Bank of Canada as special adviser to its governor, Mark Carney, and before politics he chaired Hydro One. ^[21] In March he and Turkey’s energy minister attended the signing of a memorandum to assess CANDU reactors for Turkey. ^[9] His theme is building at scale. Welcoming the second phase of LNG Canada on Sept. 28, he called it “a massive vote of confidence in Canada” and said: “Canada is building again — and the world is taking notice.” ^[11]

The move: If you are in energy or mining and in Istanbul on Friday, Oct. 23, ask to meet his team; he travels with Carney, and nuclear power, gas and critical minerals are on the agenda. ^[3]

TECH

Amazon launched the $74.99 Bee Frontier on Oct. 15, a band or clip-on that listens through the day and returns summaries, transcripts and to-dos; the $99.99 Bee Eclipse, a card that snaps onto a phone, is “coming soon.” Amazon says Bee stores no audio and encrypts transcripts. A $11.99-a-month Pro tier links it to Amazon shopping and Alexa Plus. ^[22]

Apple’s Watch Series 12 will add Siri Recap, which takes notes “ambiently,” and startups sell similar pendants and cards. Lawyers told CNBC that some U.S. state wiretap laws, including those of Massachusetts and New Hampshire, may be broad enough to cover a device that interprets speech without saving it, and that the risk can fall on the wearer if bystanders have not consented. A startup, Deveillance, has developed a puck, Spectre I, that it says scrambles speech before nearby microphones can process it. ^[23]

The move: Set a house rule for board meetings and family dinners: recording wearables off and in view, and say so in the invitation. ^[23]

DEFENSE

The Mecca defense pact between Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan has gone to the Turkish parliament for ratification, and Middle East Eye, which first reported the full text, published an unofficial translation. Article 2 reads: “An externally originating armed attack against any of the ‘Parties’ shall be considered an attack against all the ‘Parties.’” ^[24] Other states may join with the approval of all three founders. ^[25]

Its 16 articles cover intelligence sharing, joint training, logistics “including weapons, ammunition, fuel,” and joint defense production and research. A committee of foreign and defense ministers and chiefs of general staff is to meet twice a year, with a secretariat in Saudi Arabia whose first secretary-general will be Pakistani. The pact has no end date, and no party may leave in its first 10 years. ^[24] Reuters also saw the text. Burhanettin Duran, the presidency’s communications director, said it aims “to strengthen collective deterrence,” and parliament’s foreign affairs commission could take it up as early as Friday. ^[25]

The move: If you supply defense components, read Article 7, which writes joint production and technology sharing among the three industries into the treaty, and watch the commission, possibly on Friday, Oct. 23. ^[24][25]

ENERGY

Preparations for Kambarata-1, the 1,860-megawatt hydropower plant planned on Kyrgyzstan’s Naryn River, have delivered access roads, a bridge, 126 meters of the TT-2 tunnel, an 18-kilometer 110-kilovolt line and a workers’ camp, Energy Minister Altynbek Rysbekov told a parliamentary committee on Oct. 19. Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan plan a joint venture to run the plant, 34% Kyrgyz and 33% each for the others; after three rounds of talks, a fourth is proposed for Bishkek. ^[26]

The EBRD and the European Investment Bank each signed memorandums in October 2025 for up to $500 million, and on Oct. 5 Bishkek asked the EBRD to start with technical assistance and grants. ^[27][28] The same committee on Oct. 19 approved a $50 million, 20-year loan at 1% from the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development for a Kambarata-2 spillway. ^[29][30]

The move: If you build tunnels, turbines or transmission, ask the three governments when procurement opens; Kyrgyz officials told the EBRD they want it streamlined. ^[28]

TRAVEL

NetJets, the Berkshire Hathaway fractional operator, and Signature Aviation opened a private campus at Las Vegas’s Harry Reid International Airport on Oct. 20: more than 300,000 square feet, with a 17,069-square-foot terminal for NetJets owners, two hangars, a 24-hour service hub and ramp for about 25 aircraft. Owners’ Las Vegas flights rose nearly 45% from 2022, to almost 8,000 by the end of 2025, and are running nearly 30% above last year. ^[31]

Textron Aviation said on Oct. 20 that it had rolled out the first production Citation CJ4 Gen3, expected to be the first light jet on the market with Garmin Emergency Autoland, which lands the aircraft if the pilot is incapacitated. It seats up to 11, with a range of 2,165 nautical miles. ^[32] It could enter service next year, AIN reported. ^[33]

The move: If your family flies single-pilot jets, ask your operator or broker whether Autoland-equipped aircraft are on its plans for 2027. ^[32]

LISTEN

The Daily (The New York Times) · Mon., Oct. 19 · 29 min

Constant Méheut, who covers the war for The Times, explains why Vladimir Putin appears confident that Russia can bomb Ukraine into submission, as strikes on Kyiv cut power to more than a million people and President Trump talks of an energy deal with Moscow and waives new sanctions. ^[34] For anyone with a stake in the region’s grids, gas or rebuilding, it is the clearest half hour this week on a winter fought over electricity.

Listen to the episode →

LISTEN

One Decision (Sir Richard Dearlove and John Raine) · Thu., Oct. 15 · 63 min

Sebastian Mallaby of the Council on Foreign Relations, biographer of DeepMind’s Demis Hassabis, gives OpenAI a 50-50 chance of running out of money by next summer, against projected losses of $280 billion through 2030. He expects a discounted sale, not a general meltdown, because the hyperscalers’ balance sheets carry most of the risk, and he says data-center spending will pass the railways’ share of GDP next year. ^[35] Worth the hour for anyone weighing AI exposure.

Listen to the episode →

LISTEN

The Koerner Office (Chris Koerner) · Fri., Oct. 16 · 31 min

James Larson, Brenden Parker and Carter Wirig, three men in their early 20s, landed a $15,000-a-month client within months by offering businesses AI assessments, starting with texts to people they knew. They explain how they won a $30 million construction company and how they price the work. ^[36] For an owner of a family firm, the lesson runs the other way: an outside AI assessment now costs little enough to commission this quarter.

Listen to the episode →

READ

Emily Feng, with Abduweli Ayup · Columbia Global Reports · Oct. 13, 2026 · 128 pages

Feng, a journalist, follows a few thousand Uyghur exiles who left western China and became, in the publisher’s words, “a pivotal force behind the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.” Reporting with the Uyghur writer Abduweli Ayup, and with access to fighters and their families, she traces their path from the crushed protests of 1990s Xinjiang to Idlib. ^[37][38] A short book on a minority whose choices now matter in Damascus and Beijing.

See it on Amazon →

READ

One Decision (Damon Tabor) · Fri., Oct. 16, 2026 · long read

With Carney in Ankara this week, Tabor sets Canada’s middle-power push, including the Partners for Multilateralism initiative launched at the UN in September, against earlier groupings such as MIKTA, of which Turkey is a member, and against critics such as the Tufts political scientist Michael Beckley, for whom the middle “is not an open marketplace. It is a minefield.” ^[7] Read it for the case against as well as the case for.

Read the essay →

Every pick links to the original. Our note says why it is worth your time; the work is theirs.

SOURCES: FRONT PAGE 1–20 · THE OTHER PAGE 21–33 · YET ANOTHER PAGE 34–38 (ACCESSED OCT. 21, 2026)

Map data: © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), Natural Earth (public domain) · Map: The Other Post

The Other Post: Daily Briefing for the Conscientious Leader is independent analysis for decision-makers. Nothing here is investment, legal or medical advice. Issue No. 7 · © 2026 Mehmet Istanbullu