LEAD · GEOPOLITICS

Polls show neither bloc reaching 61 seats. The two Arab lists could tip the count, but the man most likely to lead says he will not work with them.

BY MEHMET ISTANBULLU · ABOUT 6 MINUTES

WHAT HAPPENED

Israelis vote today in the first general election since the Hamas attack of Oct. 7, 2023. Polls open at 7 a.m. and close at 10 p.m. local time at 12,018 polling stations, and 7,331,981 people are eligible to vote. Thirty-six lists are competing for the Knesset’s 120 seats. ^[1] A list needs 3.25% of the vote to win any seats at all. ^[2]

The final polls point to deadlock. The Jewish Chronicle’s analysis of surveys by Channels 11, 12 and 13 puts Yashar, the party of the former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, first with 22 seats, ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud on 20. Beyachad, the alliance of the former prime ministers Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett, follows on 14. Eisenkot’s bloc of Yashar, Beyachad, the Democrats and Yisrael Beiteinu is projected at 54 seats and Netanyahu’s at 50, both short of the 61 needed to govern. ^[3]

The count will be slow. Partial results come through the night, but the Central Elections Committee expects to finish only by Thursday afternoon, and the legal deadline for official results is Nov. 4. Between 600,000 and 650,000 people are expected to vote with double-envelope ballots, mainly soldiers, police officers and hospital patients. That record is equal to about 15 seats, and these ballots are counted last. In past elections they have moved one or two seats. ^[1]

WHY IT MATTERS

The arithmetic runs through Israel’s Arab citizens, about 21% of the population. Polls give the two main Arab lists, the Joint List and Ra’am, about 15 seats together. ^[4][3] With them, Eisenkot’s bloc would pass 61. But Avigdor Liberman of Yisrael Beiteinu refuses to sit with Arab parties, and losing his eight projected seats would leave the bloc right on the line. ^[3]

Eisenkot has ruled out an alliance. “I will not align myself with any Arab party,” he said on a podcast this month, citing their refusal to label Hamas a terrorist organization. ^[4] The Arab leaders are betting that the numbers will change minds after the vote. Ahmad Tibi of the Joint List has offered “a preventive block to support (a government) from the outside,” including a vote for an official commission of inquiry into Oct. 7, which Eisenkot and his partners want. ^[4]

So turnout matters. The Stat-Net Research Institute projects Arab turnout of 63%, up from 56% in 2022. Netanyahu’s campaign has used doctored images and AI-generated videos showing his rivals embracing Arab leaders, Reuters reported. ^[4] President Isaac Herzog will invite the leading candidate to form a government. If neither side can, Israel faces another election, possibly in 2027, after five in the last seven years, with Netanyahu in charge meanwhile. ^[3][4]

For Turkey the vote is a test of a common view: that relations will keep falling while both Netanyahu and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan are in power. The two men have traded insults over Gaza, and the rivalry now runs through Syria. Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey and envoy for Syria, told a security forum in Doha on Oct. 20: “What we are all terrified about is an unintended accident that happens along this road.” ^[5] A change of government in Israel would not settle Syria, but it would change the people Ankara and the Gulf capitals deal with.

PROFILE: THE KINGMAKER WHO WANTS IN

Mansour Abbas, 52, leads Ra’am, the United Arab List. He was born in 1974 in Maghar, a town in the Galilee, one of 11 children of a farming family. He trained as a dentist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and took a master’s degree in political science at the University of Haifa. ^[6] In 2021 he split Ra’am from the Joint List and took it into the government led by Naftali Bennett; Reuters describes him as the first Arab Muslim to join an Israeli coalition as a minister. That government fell after 18 months, partly over disagreements between the two men on the West Bank. ^[4][6]

He wants a second chance. “We can ensure the formation of a new government of change,” he told Reuters in Nazareth. To reach Jewish voters, he has put a Jewish former police official, Yoav Segalovitz, second on his list. “It sends a message of partnership,” he said. ^[4] Polls give Ra’am about five seats. ^[4] If Eisenkot’s bloc comes up a few seats short, Abbas will be one of the first calls it could make, and one of the hardest to explain to its own right wing.

BEST MOVES

WHAT TO WATCH

IN BRIEF

THE GULF · TURKEY

Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman, Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir and Turkey’s intelligence chief, İbrahim Kalın, met President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and the security chief Mohsen Rezaei in Tehran on Monday, Reuters reported. It was the first high-level contact between Iran and all three members of the Mecca defense pact since the war spread, and the four sides agreed to keep talking. Iran wants the U.S. blockade of its ports lifted and sanctions eased. ^[7]

The talks came as the Houthis claimed new attacks on Saudi pumping stations and Riyadh’s airport, which Saudi Arabia has not confirmed, and as Egypt’s parliament authorized its military to help defend the kingdom. Turkey’s parliament is still working to ratify the pact; Pakistan approved it last week. ^[7]

The move: If you have staff or cargo in the Gulf, keep your contingency plans live this week. A channel to Tehran is open, but the attacks have not stopped.

TECHNOLOGY · MARKETS

Anthropic, the company behind the Claude AI models, filed on Monday to list on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading. ^[10][8] Revenue in the first half of 2026 was $16.29 billion, up from $1.16 billion a year earlier. The net loss was $80.7 billion, but about $72 billion of it is a non-cash charge from revaluing convertible notes. ^[8]

The filing shows how much the business depends on computing power, with commitments of $110 billion to Amazon, $114.5 billion to Google and at least $44.9 billion to Microsoft, plus $3.1 billion a month to SpaceX. A founders’ entity keeps 50.1% of the voting power. The price, number of shares and valuation are still blank. ^[9][8]

The move: If your company buys AI services, read the filing’s risk section on computing capacity, and ask each AI vendor you rely on what happens to your service if capacity runs short.

SCIENCE & HEALTH

A personalized mRNA vaccine from Moderna and Merck, intismeran autogene, given with the immunotherapy Keytruda after surgery, cut the risk of melanoma returning or death by 42% against Keytruda alone in a trial of 1,137 patients at 157 centers. After two years, 82.2% of patients on the combination were free of recurrence, against 70.0%. The results were presented at the European Society for Medical Oncology congress in Madrid. ^[11][12]

Overall survival data are not yet mature, and the benefit appeared only after about six months. Each vaccine is made from the patient’s own tumor; 17.3% of screened patients were excluded because their tumor samples were not good enough, and the median wait for a first dose was 64 days. The companies are talking to regulators. ^[12][13]

The move: If you or someone close to you has had a melanoma removed, ask the oncologist whether the tumor tissue has been kept, and whether a trial of this vaccine is open nearby.

PROFILE

Gadi Eisenkot ran Israel’s army, sat in its war cabinet and lost a son in Gaza. Today’s polls make his party the largest.

Gadi Eisenkot in June 2026. Photo: Yahav Trudler (Yahav Studio), CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons; cropped and toned; the toned image is shared under the same license (license)

Gadi Eisenkot was born in Tiberias on May 19, 1960, to parents who had emigrated from Morocco, and grew up in the port city of Eilat, where his father worked in the Timna copper mines. He joined the Golani Brigade in 1978 and commanded its 13th Battalion, then served as military secretary to Prime Ministers Ehud Barak and Ariel Sharon, head of Northern Command and deputy chief of staff. From 2015 to 2019 he was the army’s chief of staff. ^[14]

He entered the Knesset in 2022 with Benny Gantz’s National Unity alliance and joined the government as a minister without portfolio after Oct. 7, 2023. His son Gal was killed in Gaza that December. He left National Unity in 2025 and founded Yashar the same year. ^[14] The final polls make it the largest party, with 22 seats. ^[16]

He calls domestic polarization a significant threat to Israel and wants reforms to strengthen the separation of powers. ^[14] He has also said: “I will not align myself with any Arab party.” ^[15]

The move: Read Eisenkot’s coalition terms, not his campaign lines. Who he names for defense and foreign affairs will say more about Israel’s next course than any slogan.

GADGET

Apple on Monday announced the biggest update to the iPad mini yet: an 8.5-inch OLED display, a body 5.4 millimeters thin and IP67 water and dust resistance. It runs on the A20 Pro chip, with Apple’s own N1 wireless and C2 cellular chips, and the 12-megapixel front camera now sits on the long edge for video calls. ^[17]

It starts at $699 for Wi-Fi and $849 with cellular. Orders open on Wednesday in 36 countries and regions, and deliveries begin on Nov. 6. Apple says its Siri AI features are not currently available on iPads in the European Union. ^[17]

The move: If you read board papers on a tablet, try this one in a store before you buy a larger model. It may be all you need to carry.

TURKEY · MARKETS

Turkey’s Capital Markets Board (SPK) on Monday raised the thresholds for qualified investors, the class allowed into funds and products closed to the general public. An investor now needs at least TL50 million in financial assets, up from TL10 million, or TL25 million in trading volume, up from TL5 million. ^[18][19]

The board also ended an exemption that let investors in real estate and venture capital funds count as qualified. Investors who already hold that status must show they meet the new criteria; until they do, they can sell such products but not buy more. ^[19][18]

The move: If you hold qualified-investor funds in Turkey, ask your broker this week whether your status still stands and what you need to document.

THE GULF · DEFENSE

The Royal Air Force of Oman has been in talks with Beijing and Islamabad about the JF-17 Thunder for its next batch of fighters, Intelligence Online first reported on Oct. 21. ^[20] The single-engine jet is made jointly by Pakistan and China and costs an estimated $25 million to $30 million, against more than $90 million for a Rafale. Myanmar, Nigeria and Azerbaijan fly it, and interest grew after Pakistan’s air war with India in May 2025. ^[21]

The catch is supply. Pakistan builds fewer than 20 a year, almost all for its own air force, while Iraq, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and Libya have also explored buying. ^[22]

The move: If you supply Gulf air forces, ask your customers about delivery dates, not just prices. A cheap jet that arrives in 2032 may not be cheap.

TURKEY · ENERGY

Ahmet Mücahid Ören, executive chairman of İhlas Holding, calls energy the group’s greatest opportunity, in an interview with LEADERS magazine. “Today’s barrels are tomorrow’s electrons,” he says. He points to the Kazarman and Kokomeeren hydroelectric projects in Kyrgyzstan as a way to tie Turkey and Central Asia together and to make the region “an energy bridge connecting Europe, China, and the Middle East.” ^[23]

The group began with one newspaper in 1970 and now has 26 companies and more than 3,000 employees, in media, construction, health, education, manufacturing and energy. On leadership, Ören names “patience paired with discipline.” ^[23]

The move: If you invest in Central Asia, look at hydropower contractors and grid suppliers as well as the plant owners.

LISTEN

The Daily (The New York Times) · Mon., Oct. 26 · 33 min

Shane Goldmacher, a national political correspondent for the Times, explains why these midterms are on course to be the most expensive in U.S. history, and what the ads say: Democrats tie Republicans to President Trump, inflation and corruption, while Republicans paint Democrats as too liberal. ^[24] A quick guide to the mood of the country one week before it votes.

Listen to the episode →

LISTEN

The Koerner Office (Chris Koerner) · Tue., Oct. 20 · 35 min

Koerner goes through businesses his listeners started after hearing the show: a man who turned broken brick mailboxes into $800,000 in two years while keeping his day job, a $500,000 pickleball court company in Nebraska, a teacher whose Christmas light business out-earned his salary, and a pumpkin porch business that failed. For each he covers what to charge and where to find the first customer. ^[25] Useful for anyone who mentors young founders.

Listen to the episode →

READ

Kevin Roose · Farrar, Straus and Giroux · Oct. 6, 2026 · 448 pages

The New York Times technology columnist tells the story of the race to build artificial superintelligence, drawing on more than 150 interviews with people inside the companies. New Scientist calls it a good place to start for readers new to AI, while noting that Roose is a believer in the technology. ^[26][27] Read it before your next board discussion of AI.

See it on Amazon →

READ

Sherry Turkle · Sept. 29, 2026 · 288 pages

The MIT sociologist, who has studied people and computers for decades, looks at what happens when we turn to chatbots for friendship, advice and comfort, and argues that we should “reclaim the real.” ^[28][29] A useful counterweight for any leader rolling out AI assistants to staff or customers.

See it on Amazon →

Every pick links to the original. Our note says why it is worth your time; the work is theirs.

SOURCES: FRONT PAGE 1–13 · THE OTHER PAGE 14–23 · YET ANOTHER PAGE 24–29 (ACCESSED OCT. 27, 2026)

Issue No. 13 · Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2026

The Other Post: The Daily Briefing for the Conscientious Leader, through an Istanbul lens is independent analysis for decision-makers. Nothing here is investment, legal or medical advice. Issue No. 13 · © 2026 Mehmet Istanbullu