LEAD · GEOPOLITICS

With about 90% of the vote counted, the coalition has 53 seats, the Jewish-led opposition 48 and the Arab-led lists 19. Soldiers’ and other double-envelope ballots are being counted today.

ABOUT 6 MINUTES

WHAT HAPPENED

The count has moved a long way since Wednesday morning. With about a fifth of the vote counted then, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition stood at 63 seats. By 1:51 a.m. Thursday Israel time, with about 90.5% counted, the Central Elections Committee’s partial official results gave it 53. The opposition bloc led by the former military chief Gadi Eisenkot had 48, and the two Arab-led lists 19. A government needs 61 of the Knesset’s 120 seats. ^[1]

Likud leads with 26 seats, followed by Eisenkot’s Yashar with 21. The Joint List and Together, the alliance of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, have 12 each, and the Democrats eight. Ra’am, Yisrael Beytenu, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit and Shas have seven each, and the joint Religious Zionist Party–Zehut list six. Two lists are below the 3.25% threshold: the Reservists, at 2.63%, and Amcha Yisrael, at 1.6%. Ra’am, which hovered near the threshold in Wednesday’s early count, is now comfortably above it. ^[1]

Turnout was 77.7%, or 5,695,682 voters, the highest since 1999. Still to come are the “double envelope” ballots cast mainly by soldiers, diplomats and prisoners, which the committee puts at 430,000 to 480,000; Al Jazeera put the figure above 500,000. Counting began at 1 a.m. Thursday, and final figures could come as early as Thursday evening. ^[2][1][3] Each seat is worth roughly 40,000 votes. In past elections these ballots have broadly mirrored the national vote, The Times of Israel reported. Assaf Shapira of the Israel Democracy Institute told the paper he expected “one seat to the coalition, one seat to the opposition” at most. ^[2] Official results are due by Nov. 4. ^[2]

WHY IT MATTERS

The arithmetic is now the story. Based on the partial results, the coalition is eight seats short of a majority. The Jewish-led opposition, at 48, reaches 61 only with both Arab-led lists, which would give it 67. With the Joint List alone it has 60, and with Ra’am alone 55. ^[1] There is a precedent: Ra’am joined the government of Bennett and Lapid in 2021, The Guardian noted. ^[4]

The opposition is divided on that path. Eisenkot said: “I will do my utmost to form a Zionist government,” and called on Netanyahu to step down. ^[5] Yair Golan, who leads the Democrats, urged a coalition with the Arab parties. “Netanyahu lost. I know how to count,” he said. ^[6][4]

The Arab-led lists have answered. Yousef Jabareen, who chairs the Joint List, told Channel 13 that anyone offering an alternative to Netanyahu’s government “will have to talk to us,” and told Ynet his list was prepared to “pave the way for ousting the government of Netanyahu, Ben Gvir and Smotrich, and send them home.” ^[7] Al Jazeera reported that he would rather support such a government from outside than join it. ^[3] Ahmad Tibi, who leads Ta’al within the list, said he would work with Jewish parties “to pave the way for an alternative government led by Gadi Eisenkot.” ^[4]

Netanyahu has stayed with his partners. He told Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich: “We are together and we are staying together,” The Times of Israel reported. ^[8] Likud said the election had been “stolen” by the Arab parties and asked the police and the Shin Bet security service to investigate. ^[9] The Guardian reported that Likud gave no evidence for the claim, and that the committee said it would examine it in its routine review after the election. ^[4]

Others weighed in. President Isaac Herzog, who will choose who gets the first chance to form a government, said: “We must do everything we can, certainly after yesterday, to avoid another round of elections,” and urged the parties to keep “an open mind.” President Donald Trump told Axios that Netanyahu was in “pretty good shape” and, on whether he would get involved, said: “I will take a look.” Volker Türk, the U.N. human rights chief, said he hoped the next government would “change course massively.” ^[4]

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT

The double-envelope count should end on Thursday. Once official results are published, Herzog consults every party in the new Knesset and has seven days to give one member the mandate. The Knesset is sworn in on Nov. 10. The nominee then has up to 42 days, including an extension, to form a government. Until a new government is sworn in, Netanyahu stays in office as caretaker; if no one can form one, Israel holds another election. ^[10][2]

BEST MOVES

WHAT TO WATCH

IN BRIEF

TURKEY · BLACK SEA

Defense Minister Yaşar Güler warned Russia and Ukraine on Wednesday to stop attacking merchant ships, in what Reuters called Turkey’s most direct intervention yet. “We also reserve every legal right regarding attacks on Turkish-flagged or Turkish-owned vessels,” he said in Sofia, after meeting his Bulgarian and Romanian counterparts. Ankara is waiting for replies to its proposal to stop the attacks. ^[11]

The same day, three drones hit the Liberian-flagged container ship Contship Jet about 21 nautical miles off Shabla. All 18 crew were rescued, and it is unclear who attacked. It was the fifth ship targeted by drones in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone. The three ministers agreed to set up a coordination mechanism and share early warnings. ^[13][12] Intelligence Online reported on Oct. 15 that British-made Kraken sea drones sent to Ukraine’s SBU are being tested in the Black Sea with British operators. ^[14]

The move: If you ship or insure cargo through the western Black Sea, check that your war-risk cover still applies inside Bulgaria’s zone, and get a price for routing through Turkish ports.

WEALTH · PROPERTY

Chancellor John Healey’s first Budget, delivered on Wednesday, raises income tax on property income to 24%, 44% and 49% from April 6, 2027, in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Tax on savings income rises to the same rates. From April 2028, a High Value Council Tax Surcharge applies to homes worth £2 million or more. Stamp duty is unchanged. ^[15]

For buyers, a “Your First Home” equity loan for new-build homes needs a 2.5% deposit, with £4.7 billion set aside for about 70,000 households. ^[16] The Lifetime ISA penalty on withdrawals for homes over £450,000 falls to 20% from 25%, starting today. The bank surcharge rises to 6% for 15 months. ^[15][16]

The move: If you hold U.K. rental property, check your allocation against the new rates before April 2027, and ask your accountant whether the 2028 surcharge reaches any of your homes.

GEOPOLITICS · BRAZIL

Flávio Bolsonaro, the senator who lost Sunday’s presidential election to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, arrived in Miami on Wednesday with his wife and two daughters. He left Brazil after failing to comply with a Supreme Court order to surrender his passports in a money-laundering investigation, in which he denies wrongdoing. The family crossed into northern Argentina and flew on to Guayaquil, Ecuador, and then to Miami. The U.S. government said it would grant them entry visas. ^[17]

In a letter on X, Bolsonaro called himself Brazil’s rightful “leader.” Lula called the departure “shameful.” Bolsonaro loses his immunity from prosecution when his Senate term ends in February. ^[17][18]

The move: If you are weighing an investment in Brazil, base the case on Lula’s government setting policy, and check how much of it assumed a change of government.

PROFILE

Yousef Jabareen revived the Joint List in August. Now Eisenkot’s bloc needs his votes to reach a majority, and he says he would rather support a government than join it.

Yousef Jabareen, March 2015. Photo: Nati Shohat/Knesset Archives, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons; cropped and toned; the toned image is shared under the same license (license)

Yousef Jabareen, 54, leads the list that has become the opposition’s hardest question. His Joint List has 12 seats in the partial official results, and the bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot cannot reach 61 without it. ^[22]

He was born in Umm al-Fahm in 1972 and trained as a lawyer, with degrees from the Hebrew University, American University’s Washington College of Law and Georgetown, where he earned his doctorate in 2003. He taught at the University of Haifa, Tel Aviv University and Tel-Hai College, and heads Dirasat, an Arab policy research center in Nazareth. ^[22]

He served in the Knesset for Hadash from 2015 to 2021. In May, Hadash members elected him leader with 82% of the vote, replacing Ayman Odeh. ^[19] He then rebuilt the Joint List of Hadash, Ta’al and Balad, without Ra’am. His stated priorities are a Palestinian state alongside Israel, equal rights for Arab citizens and fighting crime in Arab towns. ^[20][21]

On Wednesday he told Channel 13 that anyone who wants to replace Netanyahu’s government “will have to talk to us.” ^[7] Al Jazeera reported that he would rather back a government from outside than sit in it. ^[3]

The move: Watch for any written terms between the Joint List and the opposition. They will show what outside support would cost, and whether it holds.

TECHNOLOGY · SECURITY

Security researchers at TrendAI found that an advertiser they call “Shadow-Earth-79” was the top bidder on ads served to Starlink internet users in more than 100 countries. Six people familiar with the matter told Reuters the advertiser is Discover-Tech, which Reuters described as an alleged Israeli surveillance company. ^[23][24]

Ad auctions pass on a device’s location and details to bidders, which is how such buying can track people. The advertiser was the biggest buyer of Starlink traffic in Syria, Libya, Yemen and South Sudan, and second in Afghanistan, Reuters reported. Citizen Lab and Confiant named the company on Oct. 15, and Google and Comcast removed it from their ad systems. Discover-Tech and SpaceX did not respond to Reuters. ^[23]

The move: If your staff use satellite internet in conflict zones, ask your security team whether their devices block ads, and turn on blocking where they do not.

GADGET

XREAL’s Aura is the first pair of wired glasses running Google’s Android XR. They weigh under 95 grams and show a 70-degree field of view, powered by a Snapdragon chip in a small puck on a cable. Gemini is built in, and the glasses can mirror a laptop screen over a wire. ^[25]

They start at $1,099, a launch price that runs to year-end. Orders are open in the United States, Canada and South Korea, with Japan from Nov. 2, and shipping begins in mid-November. They are for users 18 and older. ^[25]

The move: If you work on planes, try a pair with your own laptop for a week before you buy for a team.

WEALTH · MARKETS

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday, saying that “inflation remains elevated.” The vote was 10 to 2. Lisa Cook, in her first dissent, and Beth Hammack wanted a quarter-point increase. ^[26] The rate has been in that range since a quarter-point increase in September, and the statement called growth “strong.” ^[27]

Chair Kevin Warsh said one meeting in 2027 would be given over entirely to strategy. Futures pricing points to a strong possibility of another hike in December, CNBC reported, with the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge expected above 3% for September. The decision came six days before the U.S. midterm elections. ^[27]

The move: If you hold U.S. stocks or bonds, check your allocation before the December meeting.

LISTEN

The Daily (The New York Times) · Wed., Oct. 28 · 37 min

Jess Bidgood of The New York Times explains why some Republican candidates are criticizing President Trump to win back disillusioned voters before Tuesday’s midterms, with Sen. Susan Collins of Maine and John E. Sununu in New Hampshire as the test cases. ^[28] Useful background for anyone who needs to read the results on Wednesday morning.

Listen to the episode →

READ

Alberto Manguel · Yale University Press · Oct. 27, 2026 · 168 pages

The former director of Argentina’s National Library writes about why he writes, and why writing still matters against censors, propaganda and machines that generate text on demand. The publisher calls it “a passionate tribute to literature and writing as beacons of clarity and truth.” ^[29][31] A short book for anyone whose job depends on saying things clearly.

See it on Amazon →

READ

Wendell Berry · Counterpoint · Oct. 27, 2026 · 240 pages

The last collection from the Kentucky farmer and essayist, who died in August, takes on industrial farming, the decline of local communities and what is lost when land becomes only an asset. Town & Country called it “an urgent, timely read, and an apt final work from Berry.” ^[30][31] Worth it for any leader whose supply chain starts on a farm.

See it on Amazon →

Every pick links to the original. Our note says why it is worth your time; the work is theirs.

SOURCES: FRONT PAGE 1–18 · THE OTHER PAGE 19–27 · YET ANOTHER PAGE 28–31 (ACCESSED OCT. 29, 2026)

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The Other Post: The Daily Briefing for the Conscientious Leader, through an Istanbul lens is independent analysis for decision-makers. Nothing here is investment, legal or medical advice. Issue No. 15 · © 2026 The Other Post