THURSDAY, NOV. 5 · NO. 21
Today: Turkey’s vote on the Mecca pact | Democrats take Congress | The Bank of England decides | Japarov warns Gazprom
LEAD · GEOPOLITICS
Turkey Nears a Saudi–Pakistan Defense Pact It Cannot Leave for a Decade
Parliament adopted the first article of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement late Wednesday and resumes at 11:00 UTC. An attack on one becomes an attack on all, but each country’s help is set by assessment and resources.
ABOUT 6 MINUTES
Turkey’s parliament is one sitting away from tying the country to the defense of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Late on Wednesday the General Assembly adopted the first article of the bill approving the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, then adjourned; it meets again at 11:00 UTC on Thursday for the rest. [1][2] The pact’s core is one sentence: an externally originating armed attack on any party “shall be considered an attack on all.” Once it is in force, none of the three can walk away for 10 years. [3]
Reuters called it a commitment of NATO’s second-largest army to Riyadh’s defense, coming as Yemen’s Houthis step up attacks on the kingdom. Ratification alone sends no soldiers: a deployment would need a separate mandate from parliament, which a ruling-party lawmaker told Reuters would be submitted. Officials had said Turkey’s contribution was expected to be limited to military equipment, intelligence sharing and weapons systems. [4]
From Mecca to the floor of parliament
Date | Step |
|---|---|
Aug. 7, 2026 | Erdoğan, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif sign the 16-article pact in Mecca [2] |
Oct. 20, 2026 | Text before parliament; full English text first reported by Middle East Eye [3] |
Oct. 27, 2026 | Foreign Affairs Committee approves the ratification bill [5] |
Nov. 4, 2026 | |
Nov. 5, 2026 | Session resumes at 11:00 UTC for the remaining articles [2] |
Sources: NTV, Middle East Eye, ICWWM, Anadolu Ajansı.
WHAT THE TEXT SAYS
The agreement has 16 articles and names no country or region as a threat. [3] Most of it is about building a working alliance rather than fighting a war.
What the text commits Turkey to
Article | What it says |
|---|---|
1 | |
2 | An externally originating armed attack on one party is an attack on all; help is immediate, under Article 51 of the UN Charter [3] |
6, 7 | |
8 | |
9, 10, 13 | Intelligence sharing; logistics including weapons, ammunition and fuel; nothing classified passed to outsiders [2] |
12 | |
16 |
Sources: Middle East Eye (English text), NTV (Turkish text), ICWWM.
The mutual-defense promise is real but measured. Under Article 2, the scope and nature of help are set “following an objective assessment” and “within the limits of their available resources, including military means and capabilities.” [3] According to Yeni Şafak, as reported by ICWWM, the country under attack must first ask, and the three decide by consensus; without unanimity there is no decision. [5] Article 12, which leaves earlier treaties untouched, is the clause that keeps Turkey’s NATO obligations where they were. [3]
WHY IT MATTERS NOW
The pact was signed before the Houthis began attacking Saudi Arabia, so the first test may come quickly. Defense Minister Yaşar Güler has said he does not see Turkish troops in combat or offensive operations against the Houthis. [4] Analysts expect Turkish air defenses, electronic warfare systems and the advisers to install and run them. Arda Mevlütoğlu, a defense analyst, told Reuters the alliance could be a first case of ‘defense as a service’, with “equipment and platforms but also concepts, service, training, logistics,” packaged with political support. Barın Kayaoğlu of Ankara Social Sciences University said it would build interoperability among forces using similar systems. [4]
There is an economic layer too. Intelligence Online reported in September that the pact had taken an economic turn: as Pakistan pushes ahead with privatizing state assets, Riyadh and Ankara have put their business leaders to the task. [7] Our view: Article 7 on joint production and that privatization push are where the treaty will show up first for companies, long before any Article 2 test.
THE DEBATE IN PARLIAMENT
The bill has the votes of the governing alliance and the main opposition. The objections were about terms rather than partners. İYİ Party’s Lütfü Türkkan asked how many wars and governments might change in the Middle East in 10 years, and why Turkey should accept an obligation it cannot leave in the normal way for that long. [6]
Where the parties stood in Wednesday’s debate
Party | Position | Main point |
|---|---|---|
AK Party | For | Officials say the pact is defensive and aimed at no country [2] |
MHP | For | Collective defense is not automatic; it follows consultation among the parties [6] |
CHP | For | Had announced its support [6] |
İYİ Party | Against the current text | Backs cooperation but wants legal safeguards and asks why the exit is closed for 10 years [6] |
Yeni Yol | Questions | Wants rules on sending troops and on parliament’s role under Article 92 of the Constitution [6] |
DEM, Yeni Parti, EMEP | Against | Say the pact raises the risk of being drawn into war [6] |
Source: Cumhuriyet (ANKA), NTV.
BEST MOVES
If you supply Turkish defense firms, map which of your products fit air defense, electronic warfare and logistics. Our view: those are the areas analysts expect Ankara to send first.
If you trade with Saudi Arabia or Pakistan, watch the Strategic Political and Defence Committee’s first meetings. Our view: its secretariat in Saudi Arabia will be where joint-production programs take shape.
If you follow Pakistan’s privatizations, look for Turkish and Saudi groups bidding together. Our view: the pact gives them political cover to do so.
If you have staff or projects in Saudi Arabia, read the separate deployment mandate when it comes. It, not the treaty, decides whether Turkish personnel go there.
WHAT TO WATCH
IN BRIEF
GEOPOLITICS · UNITED STATES AND TURKEY
Democrats Take Congress, and Turkey’s F-35 File Now Runs Through Their Committees
Democrats will hold at least 54 Senate seats and at least 222 in the House, NPR reported on Wednesday, flipping both chambers. They took Senate seats in Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Maine, Iowa and Kansas; Alaska and Mississippi were still being counted. Hakeem Jeffries is the presumptive speaker. [8] The new Congress sits in January. [9]
Where Congress has a hand in Turkey’s file
Issue | The rule |
|---|---|
F-35 transfer | Barred unless the administration certifies Turkey no longer has the S-400, gives assurances and waits 90 days (FY2020 defense law) [9] |
CAATSA sanctions | Imposed December 2020; the president can waive them, with some congressional review [9] |
Six F-35s held in the US | Under ‘intensive contacts’, says Deputy Defense Minister Alpaslan Kavaklıoğlu [9] |
KAAN engines | Export of 80 GE F110 engines cleared congressional review on July 9 [9] |
Source: Türkiye Today.
The shift does not halt Ankara’s talks with the administration, but it gives the Democrats the committees that review defense laws and arms sales. Congressional concern over the S-400 has been bipartisan. [9] See today’s Profile on The Other Page.
The move: If your business depends on US export licenses for Turkish programs, plan for closer committee scrutiny from January.
WEALTH & MARKETS · BRITAIN
The Bank of England Decides at 12:00 UTC, and Most Expect Its First Rise Since 2023
Most analysts expect the Bank of England to raise its rate from 3.75% to 4% on Thursday, its first increase since August 2023. Inflation was 3.5% in the year to September, driven mainly by petrol and diesel. The decision is due at 12:00 UTC. [10] A Reuters poll found 54 of 63 economists expecting the rise. [11]
Who feels a quarter-point rise, and when
Borrowers | How many | Effect |
|---|---|---|
Tracker mortgages | 510,000 | At once: about £31 a month on a typical loan (UK Finance) [10] |
Variable deals | 470,000 | When the lender decides: typically about £14 a month [10] |
New fixed deals | — | Already priced in: two-year 5.96%, five-year 5.99% (Moneyfacts, Nov. 4) [10] |
Sources: BBC News, UK Finance, Moneyfacts.
The Moneyfacts average new mortgage rate has reached 5.89%, a three-year high. [11] Savers could see better rates if the bank moves. [10]
The move: If you own or let property in Britain, ask your bank how its terms will change after today’s decision.
ENERGY · KYRGYZSTAN
Japarov Tells Gazprom to Build Out Kyrgyz Gas or Hand the System Back
President Sadyr Japarov said Kyrgyzstan could take its gas network back under state control if Gazprom fails to expand supply across the country, as it agreed when it bought the system in 2013 for $1; the agreement runs to 2039. “If you do not fulfill your obligations, I will take back the system, as we did with Kumtor,” he said he had told the company. [12]
Separately, the government has opened review of a draft law ratifying a framework with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank for up to $500 million in loans over 2026–2028, signed in Doha on Sept. 27. [13]
Where the AIIB money would go
Project | Amount |
|---|---|
Kambarata-1 hydropower plant | $200 million |
Green and affordable housing | $65 million |
Irrigation | $50 million |
Osh–Manas highway | $50 million |
Growth, energy and food security | $50 million |
Source: News.kg, citing the Finance Ministry’s note.
The move: If you supply gas or hydropower equipment in Central Asia, follow both files; who owns the network and who funds Kambarata-1 decide the next tenders.
If You Have Time · Four longer reads for the evening, the weekend or the flight.
PROFILE
Hakeem Jeffries Goes From Brooklyn Assemblyman to Speaker-in-Waiting
The corporate lawyer who became the first African American to lead a party in Congress is set to hold the House gavel in January.
Hakeem Jeffries in his official House portrait. Photo: United States Congress, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons; cropped and toned
Hakeem Jeffries, the man NPR calls the presumptive speaker after Tuesday’s vote, was born in Brooklyn on Aug. 4, 1970, and raised in Crown Heights. He studied political science at Binghamton University, took a master’s in public policy at Georgetown and graduated magna cum laude from New York University’s law school in 1997. [15][14]
After corporate law at Paul, Weiss and litigation for Viacom and CBS, he served in the New York State Assembly from 2007 to 2012 and has represented New York’s 8th district in Congress since 2013. In November 2022 he was elected unopposed to succeed Nancy Pelosi as Democratic leader, the first African American to lead a party in either chamber. [14]
His record runs from the bipartisan First Step Act on sentencing, written with a Republican, Doug Collins, to a record floor speech of eight hours and 44 minutes against the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July 2025. He opposes the 2026 Iran war, which he has called “Donald Trump’s reckless and costly war of choice in the Middle East.” He is a member of the Congressional Caucus on Turkey and Turkish Americans. [14]
TURKEY · EGYPT
Egypt and Turkey Aim for $15 Billion in Trade by 2028
Egypt’s investment and foreign trade minister, Mohamed Farid Saleh, met Trade Minister Ömer Bolat in Istanbul on the sidelines of the 42nd session of COMCEC, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation’s economic committee. The two reaffirmed a goal of $15 billion in bilateral trade by 2028. [16]
What the two ministers put on the table ItemDetailTrade target$15 billion by 2028Turkish investment in EgyptAbout $4 billion, beyond textiles and garmentsNew help for investorsAn Egyptian unit that follows Turkish investments and clears obstaclesNext stepsReview of the free trade agreement; shipping and logistics links; trade finance Source: Zawya (Arab Finance).
What the two ministers put on the table
Item | Detail |
|---|---|
Trade target | $15 billion by 2028 |
Turkish investment in Egypt | About $4 billion, beyond textiles and garments |
New help for investors | An Egyptian unit that follows Turkish investments and clears obstacles |
Next steps | Review of the free trade agreement; shipping and logistics links; trade finance |
Source: Zawya (Arab Finance).
The talks also covered barriers facing Egyptian exports to Turkey, joint manufacturing and linking value chains to sell into Europe. [16]
The move: If you have a project in Egypt held up by paperwork, ask about the unit Egypt has set up for Turkish investors.
CULTURE · ONLINE
A Turkish Snack Test Passes 3.3 Million Views in Under Two Days
Chef Nick’s “Rating EVERY Turkish Snack,” a YouTube Short posted on Tuesday, had 3,363,900 views by early Thursday. [17] Trari counted 1.9 million in its first 14 hours, about eight times a normal first day for his channel. [18]
What made the cut SnackHis verdictLay’s yogurt and herb chipsPicks out dill and mintEti Puf“I accidentally bought way too many of these”Pişmaniye (floss halva)Soft, flaky and delicateHafiz Mustafa pistachio baklava“I’ll probably end up eating the whole box” Source: Trari, from the video.
What made the cut
Snack | His verdict |
|---|---|
Lay’s yogurt and herb chips | Picks out dill and mint |
Eti Puf | “I accidentally bought way too many of these” |
Pişmaniye (floss halva) | Soft, flaky and delicate |
Hafiz Mustafa pistachio baklava | “I’ll probably end up eating the whole box” |
Source: Trari, from the video.
Turkish viewers filled the comments, and one widely liked reply pointed out that baklava is not Turkish delight. [18]
The move: If you export Turkish sweets, note which brands a global audience just met.
GADGET
Casio Shrinks Its 1995 Digital Watch Onto a Metal Ring
Casio’s CRW-002 puts the face of the A168 on a full-metal ring, with a six-digit display, three buttons and water resistance. A light pulses at a set time or on the hour, and metal injection molding reproduces the detail of the original case and band. [19]
The CRW-002 in brief ItemDetailBased onThe A168 digital watch of 1995ModuleAbout one-tenth the size of a standard watch moduleFunctionsStopwatch to 1/100 second, dual time, auto-calendar, LED lightPriceSilver $135; gold $155On saleNovember Source: Casio America.
The CRW-002 in brief
Item | Detail |
|---|---|
Based on | The A168 digital watch of 1995 |
Module | About one-tenth the size of a standard watch module |
Functions | Stopwatch to 1/100 second, dual time, auto-calendar, LED light |
Price | Silver $135; gold $155 |
On sale | November |
Source: Casio America.
Casio says it will sell the ring at select retailers, on casio.com and at its G-SHOCK Soho store. [19]
The move: If you sell gifts, note the $135 starting price for the season.
THE OTHER PAGE IN NUMBERS
8h 44m
Jeffries’s record floor speech, July 2025 [14]
$15bn
the Egypt–Turkey trade goal for 2028 [16]
3.36m
views of a Turkish snack test, by early Thursday [17]
1/10
the size of Casio’s ring module against a standard one [19]
The Best of Elsewhere · What is worth your ears and eyes this week, and why.
LISTEN
How the Blue Wave Landed, Explained by the People Who Counted It
The Daily (The New York Times) · Wed., Nov. 4 · 34 min
Nate Cohn, Lisa Lerer and Shane Goldmacher discuss how Democrats flipped both the House and the Senate, and what the shift in power means. [20] The quickest way to understand the result behind today’s front page and its Profile, and why races in places like Texas were once thought out of reach.
READ
The Art of Organizing Thoughts: Slow Wisdom for a Fast World
Shigehiko Toyama · Ten Speed Press · Nov. 3, 2026 · $28.00
The first English translation of a Japanese bestseller from 1983, on thinking for yourself rather than only absorbing what you are taught; the author contrasts ‘gliders’, who need towing, with ‘airplanes’, which fly under their own power. [21][22][23] A short, calm book for anyone whose days are all input.
READ
How to Be Less Useful: The Joy of Inefficiency
Priyanka Mattoo · Knopf · Nov. 3, 2026 · $30.00
A mix of memoir and self-help about reclaiming pleasure in mid-life, which its publisher calls a ‘chillout manual’. [21][24] A useful counterweight for readers who measure every hour by its output.
Every pick links to the original. Our note says why it is worth your time; the work is theirs.
SOURCES: FRONT PAGE 1–13 · THE OTHER PAGE 14–19 · YET ANOTHER PAGE 20–24 (ACCESSED NOV. 5, 2026)
Map data: © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), Natural Earth (public domain) · Map: The Other Post
The Other Post: The Daily Briefing for the Conscientious Leader, through an Istanbul lens is independent analysis for decision-makers. Nothing here is investment, legal or medical advice. Issue No. 21 · © 2026 The Other Post
ISSUE NO. 21
The Daily Briefing for the Conscientious Leader, through an Istanbul lens
Clear sight. Best moves. More options. — For leaders in business, government and society across MENA
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 2026 · REPORTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, NOV. 5 · GEOPOLITICS · TURKEY · WEALTH & MARKETS · ENERGY
Feet in the world. Heart in Istanbul.