
TUESDAY, NOV. 3 · NO. 19
Today: After Europe’s fridge attacks, a 30-day plan | America votes, and Turkey’s F-35s ride on it | Brent falls 7.6% | Syria eyes the Mecca pact
SPECIAL · PREPAREDNESS
What If a Major Emergency Lasts a Month? Governments Ask for 72 Hours. Here’s What a Family Can Do.
A suspected cyberattack spoiled supermarket freezers in at least eight European countries on Monday. Governments ask households for 72 hours of supplies; here is what a month takes, with shopping lists for two cities.
ABOUT 22 MINUTES
Overnight on Nov. 2, from about 01:00 UTC, the fridges and freezers of supermarkets in at least eight European countries, from Sweden and Estonia to Ireland, Italy and Portugal, were switched to defrost or turned up, some to 50C (122F), in what retailers and suppliers called a cyberattack. [1][2][3] Belgium was hit hardest: Le Soir counted some 75 stores there, about 40 of them Delhaize shops, and Belgian federal prosecutors opened an investigation. [4] In Ireland, Musgrave said 13 SuperValu stores were affected; across the region, stores threw food away. Danfoss, the Danish firm whose temperature controls were used in at least some of the units, said it was working with customers on fixes. [1] No one has claimed responsibility, [1][3] and Britain’s National Cyber Security Centre said no incidents had been reported in the UK. [2] EU agriculture commissioner Christophe Hansen called the attacks “a deliberate attempt to disrupt our food supply chain and undermine consumers’ confidence in it.” [1] It was the second wave in three weeks, after the cold aisles of some 700 French supermarkets failed on the night of Oct. 11–12. [5][6] Shops restock within days. A longer crisis is another matter, and it is the one governments are now asking families to think about.
In the past two years, government after government has told its people the same thing: keep water, food, a radio, cash and medicines at home, and expect help to take time. Sweden mailed a booklet to every household in November 2024 [7]. Poland reportedly mailed one to some 16 million homes [8]. France, Germany, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Luxembourg and the Baltic states have issued their own guides, and the European Union has set a common floor of 72 hours [9]. Britain launched its campaign on Oct. 22 [10]. On Nov. 2, Japan opened a new Disaster Management Agency and used its first day to ask households to stock at least three days of water and food, and a week if possible [11]. Any one of these could be read as routine. Together they are a signal no family can afford to ignore.
Do not expect governments to say exactly what they are preparing for. Their leaflets name storms, floods and blackouts. Their planning goes further, and part of it stays secret: Britain’s public risk register is, in its own words, “the external version” of a classified assessment [12]. Vagueness is part of the defense. A leaflet that names no threat gives nothing away to an adversary and frightens no one, and it still asks every household to be ready.
Advice like this has come before, and the dates are telling. Sweden mailed a preparedness booklet to every household in 1952 and again in 1961, then not again until 2018 [13]. In December 1961, the U.S. Defense Department issued “Fallout Protection,” a booklet telling families how to stock a shelter [14]. During Covid, the message ran the other way: in March 2020, British ministers and the chief medical adviser told the public there was “no need” to stockpile [15]. By our count, not since 1961 have so many governments, in so many countries at once, asked households to prepare to fend for themselves.
The first test came quickly. Within hours of Britain’s launch, Storm Austen cut power to 6,980 properties in Cornwall, 2,241 of them on the register of customers who need priority help, such as people who rely on powered medical equipment [16][17]. Most were reconnected within days; National Grid’s storm page reportedly listed all Austen customers as restored by Oct. 26 [18]. That is what three days of supplies is for. The registers describe longer outages, and no one can say which crisis comes next. In our judgment, this is likely not a drill. The time to prepare is now, calmly and in steps.
The numbers tell a second story. Most governments ask for 72 hours. A few ask for a week. Germany asks for 10 days. No government we reviewed asks households to plan for 30 days. Yet the same governments publish risk registers in which a national blackout takes up to a week to fix in full, critical services take months and a severe solar storm lasts one to two weeks [12]. The gap between the ask and the risk is the subject of this special.
This piece sets out who asked what and when, what the official scenarios say, why the advice stays vague and what a month of supplies would take for a family of two adults and two children. It ends with two shopping lists, one for New Jersey and one for an apartment in west Istanbul. Our 30-day plan goes beyond every official recommendation we found. It is a deeper buffer, not a government requirement.
WHO ASKED WHAT, AND WHEN
The current wave began in the Nordic countries, which never fully dropped their old civil-defense habits, and spread across Europe after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In March 2025, the European Commission’s Preparedness Union Strategy reportedly committed to guidelines for “population self-sufficiency of at least 72 hours” [9]. European Commission Executive Vice President Roxana Mînzatu reportedly summed it up as “fix your roof while the sun is still shining” [9].
Britain’s campaign is the newest in Europe and the most detailed. It asks for 3 liters of drinking water per person per day, a flashlight rather than candles, a battery or wind-up FM radio, a charged power bank, cash, printed documents and ready-to-feed formula for babies [10][19]. It tells people to order repeat prescriptions up to five working days before they need them and to check the kit every six months [19]. “Those who can follow this advice should follow this advice,” Security Minister Dan Jarvis said [10]. The government says more than 500 organizations have signed up to spread the message [10]. Japan’s request, signed by Disaster Management Minister Goshi Hosono, was blunter. In a disaster on a national scale, “there are limits to what the government alone can do,” it said (our translation) [11].
2026: Tokyo, London and Luxembourg Join the Call
Date | Who | What they asked | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
Nov. 2 | Japan, Disaster Management Agency | At least 3 days of water and food, a week if possible; 3 L per person per day; portable toilets | |
Oct. 22 | UK Cabinet Office, “Be Ready” | Be ready for 3 days; 3 L per person per day; radio, cash, power bank | |
Oct. 9 | Luxembourg government | 72-hour guide; about 300,000 copies to households from Oct. 14 | |
Sept. | The White House | National Preparedness Month message; reportedly cites a June 23 National Resilience Strategy | [21] |
July 1 (page update) | FEMA, Ready.gov | Reportedly 1 gallon of water per person per day “for several days” | |
Ongoing | New Jersey OEM | 3 gallons of water per person; one week of prescriptions; half a tank of gas |
Source: government pages listed; [S]-level items hedged in the text.
2024-2025: The Nordic Model Spreads Across Europe
Date | Who | What they asked | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
Dec. 22, 2025 | Poland, booklet mailing | Guide reportedly mailed to about 16.3 million households | |
Nov. 26, 2025 | France, SGDSN guide | Reportedly a 72-hour kit and about 6 L of water per person | |
Late 2025 | Germany, BBK brochure | Reportedly 10 days; 2 L per person per day | [25] |
Aug. 28, 2025 | Poland, government guide | “Prepare home supplies for at least 3 days” | |
March 26, 2025 | European Commission | Reportedly guidelines for “at least 72 hours” | [9] |
Jan. 2025 | Finland, 72tuntia | Reportedly at least 3 days | |
Nov. 18, 2024 | Sweden, civil-defense brochure | Reportedly at least a week; 3 L per person per day | |
Oct. 30, 2024 | EU, Niinistö report | “All-hazards” civilian preparedness |
Source: official pages and secondary reports; Polish quote is our translation.
France framed its guide as a civic duty. “Every citizen must be able to protect themselves and their loved ones while waiting for help,” the government’s public-service site said (our translation) [24]. Poland’s defense minister, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, went further: “Defending the homeland is a task for all of us” [8].
The U.S. federal message is older and looser. Ready.gov reportedly asks for water and food “for several days” [22]. New Jersey is more specific. Its Office of Emergency Management asks for three days of water, “a total of three gallons per family member,” one week of prescription medicines, a battery radio, cash, documents in a waterproof bag and a car that never drops below half a tank [23].
Turkey’s standing guidance comes from AFAD, the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority. Its emergency-bag page, dated March 12, 2019, is built around earthquakes and “the first 72 hours” before rescue teams arrive [29]. It lists canned food, dried fruit, tahini and grape molasses, copies of documents including the compulsory earthquake insurance policy, a sleeping bag, a whistle, a battery radio and a flashlight [29]. When a magnitude 6.2 earthquake struck off Silivri in the Sea of Marmara on April 23, 2025, at 09:49 UTC, AFAD said it had activated the national disaster response plan and that there were no reports of deaths or collapsed buildings [30]. The Istanbul governorate later reportedly counted 151 injured, many of them hurt jumping from buildings [30].
HOW LONG EACH GOVERNMENT ASKS YOU TO LAST
Put side by side, the asks cluster at three days. Water advice varies more than the time frame. Germany counts 2 liters per person per day, while Britain, Japan and Sweden count 3 liters and the U.S. counts a gallon, about 3.8 liters.
Most Governments Ask for Three Days
Government | Duration asked | Water per person per day | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
United Kingdom | 3 days | 3 L | |
European Union | At least 72 hours | n/a | Reported [9] |
France | 72 hours | About 2 L (6 L per kit, reportedly) | Reported [24] |
Poland | At least 3 days | n/a | Verified [26] |
Finland | At least 3 days | n/a | Reported [27] |
Denmark | 3 days | 3 L (9 L total, reportedly) | Reported [31] |
Lithuania, Latvia | 72 hours | n/a | Reported [31] |
Luxembourg | 72 hours | n/a | Verified [20] |
Source: national guidance as published; “reported” figures were not reopened on the original page.
A Few Ask for a Week or More. None Asks for a Month.
Government | Duration asked | Water per person per day | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
Turkey (AFAD) | First 72 hours (bag) | n/a | Verified [29] |
United States (federal) | “Several days” | About 3.8 L (1 gallon) | Reported [22] |
New Jersey | 3 days water; 1 week medicines | About 3.8 L | Verified [23] |
Japan | At least 3 days; 1 week if possible | 3 L | Verified [11] |
Sweden | At least 1 week | 3 L | Reported [7] |
Norway | 1 week | About 3 L (20 L a week) | Reported [31] |
Estonia | 1 week | n/a | Reported [31] |
Germany | 10 days | 2 L | Reported [25] |
Source: national guidance as published; durations for Nordic, Baltic and German guides are as reported in secondary sources.
The pattern is plain. No government in our review asks for 30 days. The month-long plan below goes beyond official advice.
WHAT THE OFFICIAL SCENARIOS SAY
The most detailed public list of what could go wrong is Britain’s National Risk Register 2025. It sets out 89 risks in nine themes, each described as a “reasonable worst-case scenario” [12]. The register warns that this is “not a prediction of what is most likely to happen” [12]. It is a planning tool. It is also the clearest official statement of how long a serious disruption could last.
Britain’s Own Register Describes Outages Longer Than Three Days
Scenario | What the register says | Duration named | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
National grid failure | Total loss of the transmission system | Full restoration “up to 7 days”; critical services “several months” | |
Severe space weather | Storm on the scale of the 1859 Carrington event | Lasts “1-2 weeks”; transformer replacement “several months” | |
GPS and timing loss | Jamming, spoofing or space weather | Restoration “up to several weeks” | |
Fuel supply attack | Conventional or cyber attack on fuel supply | n/a | |
Undersea cables | Disruption of transatlantic telecom cables | n/a | |
Drought | Listed as a national risk | n/a | |
Cold snaps and heat waves | “Low temperatures and snow”; heat waves | n/a | |
Pandemic | Listed as a national risk | n/a |
Source: UK National Risk Register 2025.
The register also lists contamination of the food supply, disinformation and conflict scenarios, including attacks that would reach NATO’s collective-defense threshold [12]. It does not name an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) as a planning scenario, and we found no official source that does, so we leave it out.
The register’s worst grid case is not hypothetical. On April 28, 2025, the whole Iberian Peninsula went dark. The final report by ENTSO-E, the body of Europe’s grid operators, published March 20, 2026, called it a “first of its kind” event, caused by voltage oscillations and gaps in voltage control that set off a cascade of power plants dropping off the grid [32]. Power was reportedly back in about 12 hours in Portugal and about 16 hours in Spain [32]. That was fast for a blackout of that size. It still left two countries without power for most of a day.
The cable risk also has a recent example. On Dec. 25, 2024, the Estlink 2 power cable between Finland and Estonia and several data cables in the Baltic Sea were damaged, reportedly after a tanker, the Eagle S, dragged its anchor; NATO reportedly launched a Baltic patrol mission in January 2025 [31].
For Istanbul, the named risk is an earthquake. AFAD’s Istanbul seismic-risk project describes the city as one of the three cities with the highest earthquake risk in the world, with potential economic losses of more than $50 billion [33]. The probability figures most often cited are reported rather than official: a 64% chance of a magnitude 7 or greater quake by 2030, attributed to the Kandilli Observatory, and a 41% chance, plus or minus 12 points, over 30 years [34]. A 2019 scenario for a magnitude 7.5 quake, published by the city and Kandilli, reportedly estimated 194,000 buildings with moderate or worse damage and 48,000 heavily damaged [34]. Japan’s request names its own list: quakes in the Chishima Trench, the Japan Trench, directly beneath Tokyo and along the Nankai Trough, plus an eruption of Mount Fuji [11].
WHY GOVERNMENTS STAY VAGUE
Most of the guides name storms, floods and outages and leave the rest general. The sources point to six reasons.
Secrecy is built in. Britain’s public register is a cut-down version of a classified assessment, and its most sensitive risks are grouped together to protect information “relating to national security or commercial considerations” [12].
One kit fits all. The EU’s Niinistö report asked for an “all-hazards” approach [28]. A single kit serves for a storm, a blackout or a war, so a leaflet does not need to name a threat or an adversary.
Calm is the goal. Britain framed its campaign around “everyday emergencies like severe storms” and the aim to “reduce pressure on emergency services” [10]. Asked whether the campaign amounted to scaremongering, Defence Secretary Wes Streeting said there was not a “specific thing we’ve got in mind,” the BBC reported [35].
Preparedness touches sovereignty. Analysts at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs wrote that the report’s caution was “most likely intentional,” because preparedness “touches on many issues at the heart of national sovereignty” [28].
Trust differs. The Finnish model rests on “a high level of trust in public institutions,” the same analysts noted, adding that “the EU is not Finland” [28].
Uncertainty is real. Planners cannot say which crisis comes next, which is why the register calls its scenarios planning cases rather than predictions [12]. Luxembourg’s guide makes the same point. “Being prepared does not mean predicting what crisis will arise tomorrow,” High Commissioner Guy Bley said [20].
The fear of panic deserves a caution of its own. Research on crowd behavior, including work by the psychologist John Drury and colleagues, reportedly finds that mass panic in emergencies is rare and that clear, specific information tends to help people act well [36].
Turkey’s approach differs in kind. AFAD’s guidance is specific to one hazard. It names the earthquake, the 72-hour window and the contents of the bag [29]. When the Silivri quake struck, the agency published its response plan status the same day [30].
In this editor’s judgment, vagueness has a cost. A household told only to “be ready for three days” will stop at three days. The registers give enough detail to plan further, and most families never read them.
30 DAYS FOR A FAMILY OF FOUR
This plan is for two adults and two children. It takes the official lists and stretches them to a month. Build it in layers: 72 hours first, then a week, then a month. Buy what the family already eats and use it in rotation.
A Month at Home Needs About 480 Liters of Water
Need | 30-day target | How | Safety note |
|---|---|---|---|
Water | About 480 L (4 L x 4 people x 30 days) | Store 240-320 L; cover the rest with a filter, tablets and a filled bathtub | 480 L weighs about 480 kg; check space and floors |
Food | About 200,000-220,000 kcal | Rice, pasta, oats, legumes, cans, nut butter, UHT milk; no-cook food for the first days | Plan for allergies and baby food |
Cooking | 1-2 hot meals a day | Single-burner butane stove and cartridges | Follow the maker’s ventilation rules; never cook on a grill indoors |
Heat | One warm room | Layers, sleeping bags, wool and foil blankets; family in one room | Battery carbon monoxide alarm; no generators or grills indoors |
Light and power | Light every night; phones charged | LED lanterns, headlamps, batteries, two power banks | Flashlights, not candles |
Information | News with no internet | Crank or battery AM/FM radio; printed contacts; meeting point | In the U.S., a NOAA weather band |
First aid | Cover a month | First aid kit, thermometer, oral rehydration salts | Ask your doctor and pharmacist about medicines |
Sanitation | A toilet with no water | Bucket with lid, heavy bags, absorbent, wipes, bleach | Keep waste sealed and away from food |
Source: UK, NJ, BBK and AFAD guidance; 30-day quantities are our estimates.
Water. Official figures run from 2 to 3.8 liters a day for drinking and cooking. We use 4 liters to allow basic washing. Storing the full 480 liters is unrealistic for most apartments, so store half to two-thirds and plan to treat the rest. Fill the bathtub at the first warning. Replace stored tap water about every six months.
Food. Adults need roughly 2,000 to 2,200 calories a day; Germany’s guide reportedly uses 2,200 [25]. Children need less, depending on age. Stock no-cook food for the first days, when stress is high, and add a manual can opener.
Heat and carbon monoxide. This is the part that kills. Carbon monoxide has no smell. Never run a generator, charcoal grill or camp stove indoors for heat. Fit a battery-powered carbon monoxide alarm in the room where the family sleeps. New Jersey’s fire-safety guidance says fuel-burning heaters should only be used with a smoke alarm “AND a carbon monoxide detector” [37].
New Jersey has specific kerosene rules. “Kerosene heaters are illegal in all but one- and two-family homes in New Jersey,” and some towns ban them outright, the state’s fire-safety guidance says [37]. Where they are allowed, use only clear 1-K kerosene, keep the room ventilated, refill outside and store kerosene outdoors in approved containers [37]. Fire codes in many places reportedly bar storing propane cylinders inside homes and apartments; check with your local fire department.
In Istanbul apartments, the wall-hung gas boiler that heats most homes needs electricity, so a power cut also cuts the heat. The same rule applies: no gas, charcoal or camp stove for heating indoors.
Documents and money. Keep copies of IDs, insurance papers, the medicines list described below and printed phone numbers in a waterproof pouch. In Turkey, include the compulsory earthquake insurance (DASK) policy [29]. Keep some cash in small notes, as the UK and New Jersey both advise [19][23].
Children. Pack comfort food, cards, books and crayons and give each child a flashlight. Practice the plan as a game.
Earthquake extras. In Istanbul, fix tall furniture and televisions to the walls, keep shoes and a flashlight by each bed and agree on a meeting point. Japan’s new request puts quake-proofing homes and fixing furniture first on its list [11]. Keep the grab bag by the door and spread the 30-day stock across rooms, so that some of it stays reachable if one room is blocked.
CHRONIC MEDICINES: ASK NOW, NOT DURING THE CRISIS
A disaster can close pharmacies, cut power and jam phone lines. About half of all Americans take a prescription medicine every day, Ready.gov notes [38]. Anyone in the family who relies on a regular medicine should make the request now, while doctors and pharmacies are working normally. We give no dosing advice and name no medicines; those decisions belong to your doctor and pharmacist.
Ask your pharmacist and insurer. Ask whether your plan covers a 90-day supply or an early refill, and what your state allows; some U.S. states let pharmacists dispense early refills when an emergency is declared [39].
In Turkey, ask about a health report. Ask your doctor whether a long-term medicine can go on a health report (sağlık raporu). Under SGK rules, report-based chronic medicines are reportedly dispensed for at most three months at a time, and patients can check their prescriptions and reports in e-Nabız [40].
Print a medicines list. Write down each medicine, the dose as prescribed and any allergies, plus the names and phone numbers of the prescriber and pharmacy. Keep it with your documents [38].
Rotate the stock. Use the oldest pack first, put new packs at the back and check expiry dates whenever you check the kit [22].
Plan for the fridge. For medicines that must stay cold, such as insulin, keep a cooler and chemical ice packs [38]. Ask your pharmacist how long each one can safely stay out of the fridge.
Plan for powered devices. If anyone uses a CPAP machine, oxygen concentrator or other powered equipment, ask the doctor or supplier about backup power and spare batteries [38]. In Britain, join the free Priority Services Register with your energy supplier and network operator; it covers people who use medical equipment that needs power [41]. In the U.S., ask your power company to put you on its list for priority restoration [38].
Children. Ask the pharmacist which fever reducer and oral rehydration salts suit your children.
Pets. Keep an extra supply of any medicine a pet takes regularly, in a waterproof container, and ask your vet what else to pack [42].
THE NEW JERSEY LIST
The lists below are orderable versions of the plan. Brands are examples, not endorsements; any equivalent item will do. Approximate prices, checked Nov. 2, 2026. The core list comes to about $1,470, or about $1,870 with a portable power station.
Water: Stored, Bladder and Filter
Item | Qty | Approx. USD | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
Bottled water, 40 x 16.9 oz case (e.g. Kirkland) | 8 cases (about 160 L) | $36 | |
7-gallon water jug (e.g. Reliance Aqua-Tainer) | 6 (about 159 L) | $107 | |
Bathtub water bladder | 1 | $35 | Amazon, Walmart |
Squeeze-type water filter (e.g. Sawyer) | 1 | $46 | |
Water purification tablets | 1 pack | $14 | Amazon, Walmart |
Source: retailer pages, checked Nov. 2, 2026.
Food: Staples for a Month
Item | Qty | Approx. USD | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
White rice | 25 lb | $18 | Costco |
Pasta | 8 lb | $10 | Costco, Walmart |
Oats | 10 lb | $12 | Costco |
Canned beans, vegetables, fruit | 60 cans | $70 | Walmart, Target |
Canned tuna or chicken | 24 cans | $40 | Costco |
Oil, salt, sugar, honey | Assorted | $20 | Walmart |
Source: store listings; estimates rounded.
Food Extras and Cooking
Item | Qty | Approx. USD | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
Peanut butter | 2 x 40 oz | $24 | Costco |
Shelf-stable milk | 24 x 8 oz | $25 | Target, Walmart |
Crackers, granola bars, nuts, dried fruit | Assorted | $60 | Costco |
Children’s favorites, fruit pouches | Assorted | $30 | Target |
Butane stove (e.g. Gas One GS-3000) | 1 | $30 | |
Butane cartridges, 8 oz | 16 | $46 | Walmart, Amazon |
Manual can opener, lighters | 1 set | $13 | Walmart |
Source: retailer pages and store listings.
Heat and Safety
Item | Qty | Approx. USD | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
Battery carbon monoxide alarm (e.g. First Alert CO400) | 2 | $46 | |
Sleeping bag rated to 30 F | 4 | $216 | Amazon |
Foil emergency blankets | 10-pack | $10 | Amazon |
Wool blankets, thermal layers | Assorted | $80 | Target, Walmart |
Source: retailer pages and store listings.
Light, Power and Radio
Item | Qty | Approx. USD | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
20,000 mAh power bank (e.g. Anker Zolo) | 2 | $72 | |
LED lanterns | 2 | $40 | Home Depot, Walmart |
Headlamps | 4 | $32 | Walmart |
AA and AAA batteries | 2 bulk packs | $50 | Costco |
Crank and solar NOAA radio (e.g. Midland ER310) | 1 | $80 | |
Printed contacts, local map, whistles | 1 set | $0-10 | n/a |
Optional: portable power station (e.g. Jackery Explorer 1000 v2) | 1 | $400-470 | Costco, Home Depot |
Source: retailer pages and store listings.
Medicine Cabinet (ask your doctor and pharmacist)
Item | Qty | Approx. USD | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
First aid kit | 1 | $30 | Target, Walmart |
Children’s fever reducer, as your pharmacist advises | 2 bottles | $15 | Pharmacy, Walmart |
Oral rehydration powder | 2 packs | $18 | Pharmacy, Walmart |
Digital thermometer | 1 | $12 | Pharmacy, Walmart |
Source: store listings; no dosing advice is given.
Sanitation, Documents and Children
Item | Qty | Approx. USD | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
5-gallon bucket with lid, toilet bags, absorbent | 1 set | $35 | Home Depot, Amazon |
Heavy trash bags | 1 box | $20 | Costco |
Wipes | Bulk | $25 | Costco |
Hand sanitizer | 2 | $10 | Target |
Unscented bleach | 1 | $5 | Walmart |
Waterproof document pouch | 1 | $15 | Amazon |
Cards, books, crayons | Assorted | $25 | Target |
Source: store listings; estimates rounded.
New Jersey residents with medical or mobility needs can register with their county Office of Emergency Management [23].
THE WEST ISTANBUL LIST
This list is built for an apartment family facing an earthquake plus power and gas cuts. Approximate prices, checked Nov. 2, 2026. The total comes to about 49,450 lira, or about $990 at roughly 50 lira to the dollar. A ready-made 4-5 person emergency bag from AKUT, the search-and-rescue association, costs 5,199 lira (about $105) and can replace some of the bag items below [43]. Some sellers label bags “AFAD onaylı” (AFAD-approved). We found no AFAD certification scheme for such bags, so treat that label with caution.
Su (Water): Bottles, Jugs and Tablets
Item | Qty | Approx. TRY | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
5 L bottled water (e.g. Erikli) | 48 (240 L) | 3,598 | |
20 L water jug with tap (e.g. Igloo) | 4 (80 L) | 3,742 | |
19 L damacana refills from a local dealer | As space allows | n/a | Local su bayii |
Water purification tablets | 1 pack | 400 | Eczane (pharmacy), Trendyol |
Source: retailer pages, checked Nov. 2, 2026.
Gıda (Food): Staples
Item | Qty | Approx. TRY | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
Rice, 2.5 kg (e.g. Baldo) | 4 (10 kg) | 1,040 | Migros |
Canned tuna, 3 x 75 g | 8 packs | 2,000 | Migros, A101, BİM |
Boiled chickpeas, 800 g jar (e.g. Tamek) | 10 | 880 | Migros |
Bulgur 5 kg, pasta 5 kg, lentils 3 kg | 1 set | 1,200 | A101, BİM |
Ready-meal cans (beans with meat, dolma) | 20 | 2,000 | Migros |
Source: retailer pages and store listings.
Breakfast, Snacks and Cooking
Item | Qty | Approx. TRY | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
UHT milk, 1 L | 30 | 2,250 | Migros |
Tahini, pekmez, honey, hazelnuts, dried fruit, rusks | Assorted | 2,500 | A101, BİM |
Children’s snacks, fruit purees | Assorted | 1,000 | Migros |
Oil, salt, sugar | 1 set | 500 | BİM |
Single-burner camp stove (e.g. Orcamp) | 1 | 1,699 | |
227 g gas cartridges, 5-pack | 3 (15) | 2,247 | |
Matches, lighter, can opener | 1 set | 200 | Migros |
Source: retailer pages and store listings.
Isınma ve Güvenlik (Heat and Safety)
Item | Qty | Approx. TRY | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
Battery CO detector (e.g. 3MK C15-L) | 1 | 4,400 | |
Sleeping bag (uyku tulumu) | 4 | 4,182 | |
Thermal underwear, blankets | Assorted | 2,000 | Trendyol |
Foil emergency blankets | 4 | 200 | Eczane, Trendyol |
Source: retailer pages; Koçtaş blocks automated checks, so re-check prices.
Işık, Enerji ve İletişim (Light, Power and Radio)
Item | Qty | Approx. TRY | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
20,000 mAh power bank (e.g. Anker Zolo) | 2 | 4,598 | |
Rechargeable lantern (el feneri) | 2 | 1,000 | Koçtaş |
Headlamps | 4 | 1,200 | Trendyol |
AA and AAA batteries | Bulk | 600 | Migros |
Crank and solar radio with flashlight (e.g. Twotech) | 1 | 1,044 | |
Whistles (düdük) | 4 | 200 | Trendyol |
Source: retailer pages and price-comparison listings.
First Aid, Hygiene and Earthquake Extras (ask your doctor and pharmacist)
Item | Qty | Approx. TRY | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
First aid kit (ilk yardım çantası) | 1 | 699 | Trendyol |
Children’s fever reducer and oral rehydration salts | As the pharmacist advises | 500 | Eczane |
Thermometer | 1 | 300 | Eczane |
Wipes, sanitizer, bin bags, bucket with lid, bleach | 1 set | 1,500 | BİM, A101 |
Personal hygiene items | 1 set | 500 | Migros |
Furniture-fixing straps | 10 pairs | 675 | Koçtaş |
Waterproof document pouch | 1 | 200 | Trendyol |
Work gloves and dust masks | 4 sets | 400 | Koçtaş |
Source: retailer pages and store listings; no dosing advice is given.
THREE DAYS IS THE FLOOR
The official advice is sound as far as it goes. Three days of water, a radio and cash will carry most households through most storms, as Cornwall found in October.
The registers describe something longer. A national blackout that takes a week to fix in full. A solar storm that lasts two. An earthquake that leaves a city’s buildings and pipes damaged for months. Governments have told their citizens what to start with. They have not told them where to stop.
Start with three days. Build to a month.
IN BRIEF
GEOPOLITICS · TURKEY
America Votes Today. Turkey’s F-35 Hopes Run Through the Congress It Elects.
Americans vote today for control of Congress, and Ankara has much riding on the count. Turkey wants 40 F-35 fighters and an end to the U.S. sanctions imposed over its purchase of Russia’s S-400 system. The president can start most of that, but the Congressional Research Service calls the role of Congress “potentially decisive.” [44] Republicans hold the House 218–214 and the Senate 53–47, [45] and the final forecasts favor Democrats in the House and lean their way in the Senate. [46][47]
The engine sale shows how it works. In June the administration notified Congress of about 80 F110 engines for Turkey’s KAAN fighter; the review ended on July 9 without a vote on a resolution to block it. [44][48] Rep. Gregory Meeks, likely to chair the House Foreign Affairs Committee if Democrats win, [50] said the State Department had “for months refused to make a good-faith effort to brief me on implications of the sale.” [49] Overriding a veto would still take 290 House and 67 Senate votes. [48] Polls close from 00:00 UTC on Wednesday; Alaska, the last, at 06:00 UTC. [51]
The move: If you supply Turkish defense programs with U.S. parts, build congressional review time into delivery dates; the committee chairs named in January will set the pace.
ENERGY · OIL
Brent Falls 7.6% as Iran Condenses Its Hormuz Plan to Two Days
Brent crude fell 7.6% on Monday to settle at $104.77 a barrel, and U.S. crude fell 7.4% to $96.46, its biggest one-day drop since July 27, after gaining more than 10% in October. [52] Iran’s negotiators left the Doha talks on Sunday with no breakthrough, and a draft is circulating. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran’s seven-step plan, which covers ending the U.S. blockade, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, an oil-sales waiver and lifting sanctions, is “now condensed, making it possible to implement it within two days.” [54]
Secretary of State Rubio said President Trump “hasn’t made a decision” and that “we would prefer to do it peacefully.” [52] Late update: Brent rose 0.5% to $105.25 by 01:04 UTC on Tuesday after the Wall Street Journal reported, citing U.S. officials, that the United States had struck Iran’s Qeshm Island; some officials called the strikes defensive. [53]
The move: If you buy fuel or freight, use the lower price to review your cover, not to drop it; a plan to reopen the strait is not an open strait.
GEOPOLITICS · DEFENSE
Syria Says It Is Weighing a Seat in the Turkey–Saudi–Pakistan Defense Pact
“Discussions are currently under way to evaluate Syria’s entry into the Mecca alliance,” Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani told the Manama Dialogue in Bahrain on Saturday. The pact, signed in Mecca on Aug. 7 by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, treats an attack on one member as an attack on all three. [55]
Turkish officials have ruled out sending troops to Yemen, and the Turkish parliament’s foreign affairs committee has approved a bill to ratify the pact, Middle East Eye reports, citing Al Jazeera. The analyst Samy Akil of Syria Report doubts Syria will join soon: “We’re still in the speculation phase, so nothing has been decided yet.” [55]
The move: If you price risk on Syrian reconstruction, follow the ratification vote in Turkey’s full parliament; it is the next concrete step for the pact.

If You Have Time · Five longer reads for the evening, the weekend or the flight.
PROFILE
Danny Deep Takes the Helm at General Dynamics as Gulfstream’s Backlog Nears $25.4 Billion
A 25-year company man from the tank business inherits Gulfstream, and a waiting list for its jets.

Danny Deep takes over General Dynamics, the defense group that owns Gulfstream, on Jan. 1, 2027. The General Dynamics board elected him chief executive on Oct. 7, succeeding Phebe Novakovic, CEO since 2013, who becomes executive chairman. [56]
He has spent 25 years at the company. Before becoming its president in 2025 he ran Global Operations and the Combat Systems group, and earlier he was president of Land Systems, which builds combat vehicles. General Dynamics employs more than 120,000 people and had $52.6 billion in revenue in 2025. [56] “I am profoundly honored to be selected as the next CEO,” he said. [56]
For private-jet buyers, his first numbers are Gulfstream’s. Presenting third-quarter results on Friday, Deep said the 33rd G800 had been handed over and that demand for Gulfstream jets is holding up despite geopolitical and interest-rate worries. [57]
Gulfstream is delivering more jets and its order book is still growing
Measure | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 |
|---|---|---|
Jets delivered | 40 (5 G280, 35 large-cabin) | 39 (6 G280, 33 large-cabin) |
Deliveries, first nine months | 119 | 113 |
Aerospace revenue | nearly $3.54 billion, up 9.3% | — |
Aerospace earnings | $513 million, up 19.3% | — |
Backlog | nearly $25.4 billion, up about $1.5 billion on the quarter | — |
Book-to-bill | 1.4 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
Aerospace is Gulfstream and Jet Aviation. Source: AIN.
The move: If you are shopping for a large-cabin jet, get your delivery slot in writing early; a book-to-bill above 1 means orders are arriving faster than jets leave the line.
DEFENSE · SOUTHEAST ASIA
Cambodia’s Military Pact With Turkey Covers Training. No Drone Deal Has Been Announced.
Intelligence Online reported on Monday that Cambodia is exploring drone partnerships with Ankara and Kyiv, with defense planning under way for a possible new round of fighting on its frozen border with Thailand. [58] The public record shows where Turkey stands today. On Oct. 16 the two countries signed a Military Framework Agreement at Dolmabahçe, in the presence of President Erdoğan and Prime Minister Hun Manet. [59] It sets a legal basis for training, exchange of experience and capacity building. [61]
Erdoğan welcomed Cambodia’s interest in Turkish defense products and saw “significant potential” for cooperation, but no contract was announced. On the border, he said Turkey hopes the dispute “will be resolved through dialogue and peaceful means,” and that Turkey has delivered aid to more than 3,000 people affected by the clashes. [59]
Turkey and Cambodia have moved step by step, and procurement is not yet on the list YearStep1959Diplomatic relations established [60]2013Turkey opens its embassy in Phnom Penh [60]2018Leaders set a $1 billion trade target [60]2020Cambodia’s defense minister visits Ankara to discuss training [60]2022Cambodia opens its embassy in Ankara [60]2025Trade reaches about $400 million, up 18% [60]Oct. 16, 2026Military Framework Agreement signed in Istanbul [59] Sources: Cambodianess, Anadolu Agency.
Turkey and Cambodia have moved step by step, and procurement is not yet on the list
Year | Step |
|---|---|
1959 | Diplomatic relations established [60] |
2013 | Turkey opens its embassy in Phnom Penh [60] |
2018 | Leaders set a $1 billion trade target [60] |
2020 | Cambodia’s defense minister visits Ankara to discuss training [60] |
2022 | Cambodia opens its embassy in Ankara [60] |
2025 | Trade reaches about $400 million, up 18% [60] |
Oct. 16, 2026 | Military Framework Agreement signed in Istanbul [59] |
Sources: Cambodianess, Anadolu Agency.
The move: If you sell defense equipment in Southeast Asia, watch for a follow-on defense industry agreement; the October framework covers training, not purchases.
WEALTH & MARKETS · UK PROPERTY
UK House Price Growth Slows to 0.5%, the Weakest Since January 2024
Nationwide says UK house prices rose 0.5% in the year to October, down from 0.8% in September and the weakest pace since January 2024. Prices were flat on the month, and the average home cost £273,566. Chief economist Robert Gardner said the Middle East conflict is pushing up energy prices and inflation worries, and that market expectations of Bank Rate increases have kept upward pressure on the rates behind mortgage pricing. Surveyors report weak new buyer enquiries, and consumer confidence dipped in October. He still expects the market to regain momentum once the energy shock fades, because incomes have been rising faster than prices. [62]
The Bank of England announces its next rate decision on Thursday, Nov. 5, at 12:00 UTC. [63] It is widely expected to raise Bank Rate by a quarter point, to 4.0% from 3.75%, Reuters reports. [64]
The move: If you own or let property in Britain, ask your bank how Thursday’s decision will change your terms.
GADGET
Fairphone’s New Earbuds Let You Change the Batteries Yourself
Fairphone’s Fairbuds 2 reach the United States at $119.99 with seven replaceable parts. A new pair of bud batteries costs $9.99 and a case battery $16.99. iFixit gives them a repairability score of 10 out of 10, and they carry a three-year warranty, noise canceling of up to 45 dB and Bluetooth 6.0. [65]
Fairbuds 2 cost less than AirPods 5 and last longer, and you can swap the batteries Fairbuds 2AirPods 5U.S. price$119.99$129Battery, noise canceling on6 hours4 hoursWith the case40 hours20 hoursUser-replaceable batteryYes, from $9.99No Source: The Gadgeteer.
Fairbuds 2 cost less than AirPods 5 and last longer, and you can swap the batteries
Fairbuds 2 | AirPods 5 | |
|---|---|---|
U.S. price | $119.99 | $129 |
Battery, noise canceling on | 6 hours | 4 hours |
With the case | 40 hours | 20 hours |
User-replaceable battery | Yes, from $9.99 | No |
Source: The Gadgeteer.
The move: If your earbuds die every two years, choose a pair with a battery you can replace.
CENTRAL ASIA · KYRGYZSTAN
Kyrgyzstan Auctions Land for 12 Small Hydro Plants Today
Kyrgyzstan’s state Green Energy Fund holds the bidding in Bishkek today for land to build 12 small hydropower plants with 105.5 MW of capacity in all. Winners get the land-use rights to build and run the plants. The largest is a 28 MW site near Maydan-Tal in Osh’s Aravan district. [66]
The biggest plots are in the south and in the north around Chuy RegionPlants (MW)Osh28 (Aravan), 9, 1.6Chuy11, 1.8, 7.5Naryn12, 5.6Issyk-Kul12 (Juuku River)Jalal-Abad4, 10Talas3 Total: 12 plants, 105.5 MW. Source: Hydro Post.
The biggest plots are in the south and in the north around Chuy
Region | Plants (MW) |
|---|---|
Osh | 28 (Aravan), 9, 1.6 |
Chuy | 11, 1.8, 7.5 |
Naryn | 12, 5.6 |
Issyk-Kul | 12 (Juuku River) |
Jalal-Abad | 4, 10 |
Talas | 3 |
Total: 12 plants, 105.5 MW. Source: Hydro Post.
The move: If you build small hydro, ask the Green Energy Fund for the auction results and the grid terms that come with each plot.
THE OTHER PAGE IN NUMBERS
$25.4bn
Gulfstream and Jet Aviation’s backlog [57]
$400m
Turkey–Cambodia trade in 2025 [60]
10/10
iFixit’s repairability score for Fairbuds 2 [65]
105.5 MW
capacity on offer in Kyrgyzstan’s hydro auction [66]

The Best of Elsewhere · What is worth your ears and eyes this week, and why.
LISTEN
The Texas Border Valley That May Turn on Election Day
The Daily (The New York Times) · Mon., Nov. 2 · 77 min
Lynsea Garrison, a producer on the show, reports from the Rio Grande Valley of Texas, one of the regions expected to swing away from President Trump and toward Democrats, where life has been transformed by the crackdown on immigration. [67] The long version of today’s vote, told by the people casting it. The episode contains strong language.
READ
Is It Too Late to Make a Run for It?
Judi Dench and Brendan O’Hea · St. Martin’s Press · Nov. 3, 2026 · $31
Dame Judi Dench talks through her life and career with the actor and director Brendan O’Hea. [68][71] A gentle evening read on a working life that has lasted.
READ
Ocean of Bones: The Hunt for the Pirate Slave Ship Guerrero
David Kushner · Gallery Books · Nov. 3, 2026 · $30
The journalist David Kushner follows the search for the Guerrero, a slave ship that sank off Florida in 1827. [68][69] History recovered from the seabed, and a reminder of what the archives leave out.
READ
The Heights
Ian Rankin · Cardinal · Nov. 3, 2026 · $29
Ian Rankin sets a thriller in a luxury apartment building in London. [68][70] For the flight: a master of the form on the city’s most expensive addresses.
Every pick links to the original. Our note says why it is worth your time; the work is theirs.
SOURCES: FRONT PAGE 1–55 · THE OTHER PAGE 56–66 · YET ANOTHER PAGE 67–71 (ACCESSED NOV. 3, 2026)
European Commission and High Representative, “Preparedness Union Strategy,” March 26, 2025 (strategy text and quote as reported).
The White House, Presidential Message on National Preparedness Month, September 2026 (as published in search results; not reopened).
Germany, Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance (BBK), “Vorsorgen für Krisen und Katastrophen,” 2025 edition (figures as reported).
Norway (DSB), Denmark, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia household guidance, and reports on the Dec. 25, 2024 Baltic cable damage and NATO’s Baltic Sentry mission (figures as published in secondary reports).
T24, report on the Kandilli Observatory estimate, and reports on the 2019 Istanbul earthquake loss scenario (figures as reported).
John Drury and colleagues, research on collective behavior and “mass panic” in emergencies, 2019 (as summarized in secondary sources).
The Other Post: The Daily Briefing for the Conscientious Leader, through an Istanbul lens is independent analysis for decision-makers. Nothing here is investment, legal or medical advice. Issue No. 19 · © 2026 The Other Post
ISSUE NO. 19

The Daily Briefing for the Conscientious Leader, through an Istanbul lens
Clear sight. Best moves. More options. — For leaders in business, government and society across MENA
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 2026 · REPORTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY, NOV. 3 · GEOPOLITICS · TURKEY · ENERGY · WEALTH & MARKETS
Feet in the world. Heart in Istanbul.