SATURDAY, OCT. 31 · NO. 17
This week: Brent $117.64, six-month high | Israel 53–48–19 | Serbia: students win 140 seats | Ahead: U.S. midterms, Bank of England
LEAD · THE WEEK THAT WAS
The Votes Are Counted. The Hormuz Risk Is Not.
Brent hit a six-month high as Iran said four tankers burned, while Israel, Serbia and Brazil finished counting and Turkic leaders met in Ankara.
ABOUT 8 MINUTES
The counting is done in three countries that voted last weekend. The risk at sea is not. In a week when Israel, Serbia and Brazil settled their results, Iran said four tankers burned in the Strait of Hormuz and oil ended October at its highest in six months. Here are seven things that changed.
Hormuz burns again. On Friday the navy of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said four tankers caught fire or exploded on routes it had not authorized, one carrying more than 2 million barrels after hitting a mine. Reuters could not verify the claim. [1] The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations center separately reported a small boat attaching two explosive devices to a tanker, the first such attack since the war began in February; Iran also disputed a U.S. statement that the lanes had been cleared of mines. [2][3] President Donald Trump said the war would “get wrapped up soon.” [4] Brent for December settled at $117.64, up 2.4% on the day and 13.6% in October. [5] Two days earlier, sea drones sank the container ship Contship Jet off Bulgaria; all 18 crew were rescued. [6] What changed: the U.S. statement that Hormuz was clear did not survive the week, and oil is pricing that in.
Israel’s count is final, and no bloc has 61. The Central Elections Committee’s final results give Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc 53 of 120 seats, Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc 48 and the two Arab parties 19. Likud is the largest party with 27 seats; turnout was 77.9%, the highest since 1999. [7] The Shin Bet is investigating suspected foreign interference; the committee said the probe “will not affect the final results.” [7][8] What changed: the numbers we reported on Thursday held, so the question now moves to President Isaac Herzog’s consultations. [9]
Serbia’s students win a majority; Lula wins a fourth term. Serbia’s electoral commission gave the Student List 52.71% and 140 of 250 seats, against 39.17% and 104 for the Serbian Progressive Party; President Aleksandar Vučić conceded on election night. [10][11] The new assembly must meet within 30 days of final results, and a government needs 126 votes. [12] In Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva beat Flávio Bolsonaro 51.79% to 48.21%. [13] Bolsonaro flew to Miami on Wednesday despite a court order to hand over his passports. [14] What changed: Serbia will have its first government not led by Vučić’s party since 2012; Brazil keeps its course.
Turkey takes the Turkic chair. At the Organization of Turkic States summit in Ankara on Thursday and Friday, leaders signed the Ankara Declaration, Turkey took the rotating chair from Azerbaijan and Mirvahid Azimov became secretary-general. The text covers the Middle Corridor, defense industry training, cybersecurity and a common alphabet; the next summit is in Uzbekistan in 2027. [15][16] Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov said his country uses only about 15% of its hydropower potential and cited the Kazarman cascade being built with İhlas Holding as an example of the cooperation he wants. [17] The İhlas-affiliated cascades on the Naryn and Kokomeren rivers are priced at more than $6.2 billion for 2,217 megawatts. [18] What changed: energy joined transport at the top of the bloc’s agenda for the year Turkey chairs it.
British property gets a new tax bill. Wednesday’s Budget raises income tax on property income to 24%, 44% and 49% from April 6, 2027, in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, with savings income taxed at the same rates. [19] From April 2028 a High Value Council Tax Surcharge adds £2,500 to £7,500 a year on homes worth £2 million or more. Stamp duty is unchanged. [20] What changed: holding British property, not buying it, is where the new cost falls.
Three central banks hold, two may not. None of the week’s big three moved, but the signals diverged.
No cut anywhere: the week's three rate decisions
Bank | Decision | Signal |
|---|---|---|
Federal Reserve, Oct. 28 | Held at 3.75%–4% | Vote 10–2; two members wanted a hike |
ECB, Oct. 29 | Deposit rate held at 2.50% | Other key rates also unchanged |
Bank of Japan, Oct. 30 | Held at 1.25% | Says its 2% target is “generally” reached |
What changed: the next two decisions, in Sydney on Tuesday and London on Thursday, are the ones forecasters expect to raise rates. [35][38]
A Russian convoy loads in the Baltic. Intelligence Online first reported on Wednesday that Ukrainian military intelligence is tracking a convoy of Russian ships carrying heavy equipment for the Africa Corps, formerly Wagner, and is willing to act. [24] By Friday five sanctioned cargo ships, the Lady R, Ascalon, Lady D, Sparta and Anastasiia, were loading or loaded at Baltiysk in Kaliningrad, with an escort-class corvette in port. [25] The route is the part less noticed. Since Feb. 28, 2022, Turkey has applied the Montreux Convention to bar warships from the Bosphorus and Dardanelles, except those returning to home bases, so escorts cannot come out of the Black Sea. [28] Cargo ships can still pass, as the Lady R did in 2023, but a convoy with naval cover must sail from the Baltic past Gibraltar. In September drones bombed another Russian cargo ship, the Lady Mariia, between Crete and Libya. [24][26] On Saturday Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky meets President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Istanbul for talks that include Black Sea security, the Turkish presidency said. [27] What changed: Ukraine’s war on Russian shipping now follows the cargo into the Mediterranean.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Washington Votes, London Is Expected to Raise Rates and Israel Starts Talks
Sunday, Nov. 1: Novi Sad marks two years since its station canopy fell, killing 16; a silent gathering at 11:52 local time, 10:52 UTC [29][30]. The first anniversary since the protest movement won a majority; expect demands for accountability to set the tone for the new parliament.
Sunday, Nov. 1: Seven OPEC+ countries meet online to set output for December [31]. With Brent above $117, any change in quotas lands on fuel costs in every budget that runs on oil.
Tuesday, Nov. 3: Turkey publishes October inflation at 10 a.m. Turkey time, 07:00 UTC; September’s annual rate was 29.73% [32][33]. The first reading since the central bank cut to 36%; it tests whether the bank can keep easing.
Tuesday, Nov. 3: Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision at 2:30 p.m. Sydney time, 03:30 UTC; the cash rate is 4.60% [34]. Commonwealth Bank expects a hike, a test of how far the oil shock is pushing rates up beyond Europe and the U.S. [35]
Tuesday, Nov. 3: U.S. midterm elections: all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships. Republicans hold 218 House seats and 53 in the Senate [36][37]. Democrats need three House seats or four Senate seats; reports link the timing of further U.S. action on Iran to the vote. [2]
Wednesday, Nov. 4: Israel’s final results go to President Herzog; consultations with the parties are expected to follow, and the Knesset is sworn in Nov. 10 [7][8]. Herzog decides who gets the first try at a coalition when neither bloc holds 61 seats.
Thursday, Nov. 5: Bank of England rate decision at 12:00 UTC; a Reuters poll expects a rise to 4% from 3.75% [38]. It comes a week after a Budget that raised taxes on property and savings income, so households feel both at once.
Friday, Nov. 6: U.S. jobs report for October at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, 13:30 UTC [39]. The first hard data after the vote, and the main input for the Fed after two members voted to hike.
OFF THE RADAR
Isimba Dam Faces Peak Rains With a Spillway Safe at Under 40%
Uganda’s Isimba hydropower plant on the Nile, 183 megawatts and commissioned in March 2019, is entering the peak of an above-normal rainy season with a spillway its own officials say cannot safely pass its design flood. [40] The spillway was designed for 4,500 cubic meters a second; officials told the Inspectorate of Government in 2025 that less than 40% of that can be released safely. Defects date to floods in August 2022, and more erosion upstream was found in May. [40][41]
The plant was built by China International Water and Electric Corporation, financed mainly by a China Exim Bank loan, and has never received a completion certificate. In March 2025 the state minister for energy put the cost of fixing it at not less than $150 million. [42] On Oct. 16 officials held a five-hour closed inspection. [41] “When you have a spillway that is likely not to deal with its flood design capacity, and then you are getting a lot of rain, then you can’t stop worrying,” said Harrison Mutikanga, chief executive of the state generator UEGCL. [40] Forecasters expect the heaviest rain through November, possibly into January. [43]
Until the repair is done, every wet season puts the same question to a dam that cannot release its design flood.
The move: If your operations or suppliers depend on power or land below a dam, ask the operator for its latest spillway inspection and emergency plan, not just its output figures.
SOURCES (ACCESSED OCT. 31, 2026)
Map data: Natural Earth (public domain) · Map: The Other Post
The Other Post: The Daily Briefing for the Conscientious Leader, through an Istanbul lens is independent analysis for decision-makers. Nothing here is investment, legal or medical advice. Issue No. 17 · © 2026 The Other Post
ISSUE NO. 17
The Daily Briefing for the Conscientious Leader, through an Istanbul lens
Clear sight. Best moves. More options. — For leaders in business, government and society across MENA
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 31, 2026 · REPORTED THROUGH FRIDAY, OCT. 30 · ENERGY · GEOPOLITICS · TURKEY · WEALTH
Feet in the world. Heart in Istanbul.